How big of a deal are Tim Lincecum's recent struggles?

From sfgate.com

I just wrote an article for bleacherreport.com under the same title as this blog post. Instead of just providing the link, I pasted it here (aren't I nice?). I sure hope you like it:


I read a good article from Grantland.com's Jonah Keri the other day. Keri discussed the 17-8 shellacking the Rockies put on the Giants on April 11, but mainly focused on Tim Lincecum -- the starter that day -- who get shelled for six earned runs in less than 3 innings.

(I realize that game was a week ago, so sorry if this post seems a little dated, but the main issue of Lincecum's struggles are just as relevant now as they were last week.)

Keri references five articles written over the past two seasons that basically all ask the same question: "What's wrong with Tim?" As we now know, there wasn't really anything permanently wrong with Lincecum, he just went through some slumps.

Many Giants fans remember his horrendous month of August in 2010 (7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). You couldn't find a Giants' fan who was 100% confident Lincecum would improve, not only for the rest of that season, but for his career. Well, he improved (1.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in September; 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in the postseason). Oh, and the Giants won the World Series that year.

People note that Lincecum's fastball is only topping out around 91-92 MPH, but, as Keri notes, "he hasn't [thrown much faster] for a few years now, and he's still put up strong results."

All that being said, I'm not going to sit here and say that Lincecum will be fine because there's no way of knowing that. Three starts is a very small sample size but maybe his struggles will continue. If they do, though, a struggling Lincecum might actually be a blessing in disguise for the Giants.

Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner both recently received expensive extensions, and if Lincecum pitches like he has since 2008, the Giants would almost certainly have to give more money to him than either Cain or Bumgarner. With that much money invested in three pitchers, it would be hard for the Giants to re-sign other important players (like Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval) or go after free agents. If Lincecum shows signs of slowing down, the Giants can try to trade him and get some value back or just let him test free agency when his contract expires after the 2013 season. Because Lincecum has one more year on his deal after this one, the Giants can be patient and see what happens with Timmy before they have to make any big decisions.

While the Giants' front office might have time to make a decision on Lincecum, that doesn't mean their decision will be easy. If Lincecum continues to struggle, he hurts the Giants' chances of winning in the near future, even though his departure from the Giants might give them more money to improve the team in other areas, which would help them in the somewhat distant future. However, if he pitches great these next two seasons, he helps the Giants' chances of winning now, but then the Giants would either have to give him a huge contract or let him (one of the best pitchers in the game) join another team. I'm stressed just writing about these scenarios. I can't imagine how tough it is for the Giants' front office.

Again, Lincecum is three starts into this season, so let's see how this season plays out before we all try to figure out what's best for the Giants and Lincecum. There are far more important things to worry about, like if beer and fried chicken were to blame for the collapse of Brian Wilson's elbow...


Side note: As I was writing this, he Giants just beat the Phillies 1-0 in 11 innings (in 2 hours and 27 minutes!). Cliff Lee pitched 10 innings with 0 ER, 0 BBs, 7 hits, and 7 Ks. That's pretty good, I guess. Matt Cain? 9 IP, also 0 ER, 2 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks. Psh, that's that's not even his best start this year. Man, I wish I could've watched this game! You don't see great pitchers' duels like this very often.