Reevaluating the awfulness of Barry Zito's contract

A little over a month ago, right after the Giants won the World Series, I sent an email to ESPN's Baseball Today podcast. The question I asked: Did Barry Zito's performance this past postseason validate the 7-year, $126 million contract he signed in 2007?

The podcast's hosts, Eric Karabell and Keith Law, read my email on the show (very humblebraggy, I know). Karabell didn't completely dismiss this question but Law did, saying that two games could never make up for six years of a player who's only been worth seven wins.

I mostly agree with Law's sentiment if we're solely talking about value. Zito obviously hasn't been worth the astronomically high contract he was given and even a Cy Young-caliber performance next season wouldn't change this fact. But the Giants have won two World Series during Zito's career in San Francisco. Even though Zito hasn't been a key player in either 2010 or 2012 (his two great playoff starts notwithstanding), what more could Giants fans have asked for when Zito joined the team six years ago?

Let's say the Giants didn't sign Zito and spent that $126 million on a bunch of other players who all performed at a level that justified their contracts. If you told Giants fans that their team would win one World Series, much less two, in the the time period from 2007-2012, every one of them would sacrifice multiple other seasons for a chance to be champs just once. Sure, spending the $126 million on a larger number of players who each provided more value than Zito would have probably netted more regular season wins and maybe one or more postseason births, but two titles is more than even the deepest, most talented teams would expect in a three-year span (just ask the Rangers).

I haven't even mentioned Aaron Rowand yet, another head on the Mount Rushmore of Awful Giants Contracts. The Giants payed him $13.6 million to be a bench player on the 2010 team and payed him the same amount in 2012 even though he wasn't on the team. Zito made $18.5 million in 2010 while not even pitching in the playoffs. If you're scoring at home, that's $45.7 million paid to two players who were basically non-factors during the Giants' two championship years.

Rowand and Zito haven't been the only two Giants players with bad contracts during these last three seasons, either. This shows that A) the rest of your team needs to be smartly, efficiently crafted, B) being rich helps, and C) you need a lot of luck to win a World Series.

For every Rowand and Zito there's an Andres Torres, Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, etc. who have performed incredibly well while costing a criminally low amount of money. GM Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants' front office deserve as much credit for their drafting, signing of free agents, and trading as they deserve blame for their, well, drafting, signing of free agents, and trading. They've drafted players who never contributed a thing to the Giants, signed free agents like Zito, and made awful trades that have or might come back to haunt them. But they've also drafted a slew of great pitchers, signed undervalued players like Aubrey Huff (2010 version), and stolen trades like the ones that landed Scutaro and Melky Cabrera.

It also helps when you have a top-10 MLB payroll, as the Giants have had each of the last three seasons. Poor teams like the Rays and A's have to be extra smart about who they spend their money on if they want to contend, but the Giants can make huge mistakes and still sign the Bumgarners and Matt Cains of the world to large extensions.

All this being said, the Giants wouldn't have won either of these past two titles without a fair amount of luck. The on-field luck involved in baseball might be higher than in any other team sport, especially when you get into the small sample size that is the MLB playoffs. But think about how lucky Sabean has been in his "shrewd" signings and trades. Without players like Scutaro, Huff, Cody Ross, and Javier Lopez, the Giants might still be searching for their first title in San Francisco. Scutaro and Ross, especially, got hot at the most opportune times and will forever be know as heroes to Giants fans. I do think Sabean deserves credit for finding these guys, but I don't think there's any way he could have foreseen the impact they would have on his team.

To win a title, you need to be lucky and good.

So, to answer my Barry Zito question at the beginning: no, his contract is irredeemable, but it didn't prevent the Giants from achieving their goal. His two great performances in this past postseason certainly provided some value but didn't make up for the 150+ mediocre starts he made since 2007. If you're a Giants fan, you're happy about the titles but you hope Sabean doesn't make too many mistakes like this again because spending a ton of money on bad players isn't a winning strategy. Ned Colletti knows what I'm talking about.

Just how amazing was Buster Posey's season?

The World Series ended nearly a month ago and Buster Posey was awarded the NL's Most Valuable Player honor over a week ago, so every Giants fan should have a proper appreciation for Posey's brilliant season by now, right?

Maybe I'm alone but the Giants fan writing this post is still trying to process everything Posey accomplished, not only his brilliant regular season and playoff heroics but also everything that preceded 2012.

In August, I wrote about Melky Cabrera's suspension and where the game on the day of that suspension ranked on the list of worst games in the Giants' 21st century history. That game joined four others that I'll always painfully remember, and quite possibly the worst game of the five was on May 25, the game where Buster Posey suffered a season-ending knee injury.

I didn't see the play live (thankfully) but once I saw the replays, I knew it was a serious injury. For a day Giants fans had the images of Posey's leg bending in a way legs aren't supposed to bend, Posey grabbing the dirt in pain, and Posey being helped off the field. If the earliest possible return was October, Giants fans would've rejoiced.

Then we heard he was done for the year, and while we still had hope for the season, a part of every Giants fan knew the playoffs were unlikely with Posey out of the lineup*. Headlines like this made us wonder if his 2010 season was actually going to be his best.

*His 1.8 WAR (FanGraphs' version) was the third-best by a Giants position player for the entire 2011 season. And people were blaming Carlos Beltran for the Giants August-September collapse?? (By the way, Beltran's 1.3 WAR in his two months with the Giants was the fifth-best among all Giants position players for the season.)

I'm not trying to be hyperbolic when I say this: before the 2012 season, I didn't care how well Posey produced as long as his knee stayed healthy. Just thinking about him squatting for nine innings and 80+ games (if we were lucky) made me feel like I was reliving Game 6 of the 2002 World Series*.

*I'd still probably put this game ahead of the Posey injury game on the aforementioned "Worst Game of the 2000s" list, but the fear surrounding his injury was more long-term than losing Game 6. The Giants still had a chance to win the World Series the day after that Game 6 or in the years following 2002, but when Posey went down the entire future was in question. Would his injury prevent him from having a great career and how much would that effect the entire Giants franchise and their ability to win down the road? We were all considering the worst-case scenarios.

Posey's March/April was great (.353 BA, .413 OBP, .603 SLG) but Giants fans knew it had only been a month and we were just focused on the fact that he made it through a month unscathed.

He didn't hit very well in May but, again, no DL time. June was a decent month hitting-wise but a great month avoiding injuries-wise.

By the All-Star break, his numbers looked pretty nice and we were pumped that he was the starting NL catcher in the Mid-summer Classic. Even if he didn't totally deserve to start, most people believed he at least deserved to be an All Star. Giants fans never said to themselves, "We're glad he's an All Star and all, but his knee could really use this time off to rest." The Giants were playing well and a healthy Buster Posey was a big reason.

Then he completely went off. In September, Posey's OPS was 1.023, which was lower than either of his July or August figures. It wasn't a coincidence that the Giants pulled away from the Dodgers to win the division while Posey was tearing up the league.

While there was a huge debate as to who the AL MVP should be (don't get me started), most people expected Posey to take the NL award when the season ended. People liked his amazing comeback story and the fact that he was on a playoff team, but his numbers -- whether you prefer traditional or sabermetric -- stacked up well compared to every other NL MVP candidate. Other than baserunning, he didn't do a thing poorly in 2012.

Posey's 8.0 WAR trailed only Mike Trout's 10.0 by position players and it was also the highest by a Giants hitter since Bonds' 11.9 (11.9!) in 2004. In fact, no Giants' position player had a WAR higher than 6.9 since in between that Bonds season and Posey's season this year.

Also, Posey is a homegrown player. As Grant Brisbee pointed out, the Giants haven't had very much success drafting and developing position players, which makes Posey even more special.

So to recap: Posey had a horrific, might-never-be-the-same-again injury in May 2011, recovered and was healthy enough to be the 2012 opening day catcher, played well enough in March through July to (deservedly) become an All Star, and played out of his mind in the second half to win the NL MVP award and help the Giants make the playoffs.

Did I miss anything?

Oh right, he also did this. Which eventually allowed him to do this.

Some people say it's a coincidence that Buster Posey has won a ring in both of his only two full seasons in the big leagues (which happen to be the only two seasons in which the Giants have won the World Series in San Francisco). I don't have a rebuttal, I just wanted to type that sentence. Buster Flipping Posey!

The long overdue "Giants win the World Series!" post

It's been over a week since the Giants won the World Series, but I have a good excuse for taking this long to write about it: I'm a college student. College students have class to go to and homework to do on weekdays, and weekends are equally as tough on our brain cells. Get off my back!

OK, this excuse-making might be pointless based on the lack of readers I have but I still feel bad for taking this long. Today, November 6th, is the perfect day to write this post because it's not like anything important is going on in our country right now. No distractions whatsoever.

So, let me say this again: THE GIANTS WON THE WORLD SERIES. I could type that line 100 times in row with no other words and it would be a more delightful post than the one I'm actually writing but I'm not that lazy. This is the second title in three years for the Giants, which has some people uttering the word "dynasty." You may agree with this Giants' dynasty billing or you may totally disagree but I don't care about this storyline right now. That can wait a few months when we get closer to next season. Right now, all I care about is the 2012 team and how freaking happy it makes me to think about those players (except you, Melky).

"Happy" might seem like an overly-simplistic word to use to describe the Giants winning the World Series (my fingers get giddy typing those six words) but it is the best word to describe this season. In 2010, the word describing the season was "torture", so I think you understand why I haven't tried to find a more eloquent word than "happy" to describe my feelings. The Brian Wilson injury and the Melky drama were definitely rough patches but everything else this season overshadowed those low points.

Oh, did I depress you by bringing up Melky and Wilson? Here are some soothing words: Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan, Ryan Vogelsong, Pablo Sandoval, Barry Zito (I can't believe it, either), Sergio Romo, Brandon Crawford's defense, Madison Bumgarner pitching in the World Series, Bruce Bochy's playoff managing, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt's charming weirdness, etc. etc. etc. I could literally list the whole team and a Giants fan would smile just as much for every player/coach.

Each of those names listed above gives me an equal amount of joy, even if their individual narratives are drastically different. I might even right separate posts on each player and why I'm so happy for them because this post would be way way way too long.

The playoff comebacks were amazing but surprisingly not very stressful. Besides Game 3 of the NLDS, none of the Giants' wins in elimination games were close. They dominated every game, which turned our fear into confidence and eventually that turned into pure joy when they improbably won the two series. After Game 1 of the World Series, confidence was through the roof, so Giants fans couldn't help but feel a great sense of bliss.

This post might be all over the place but I don't know if I can write a perfectly structured post on this World Series. No Giants' championship will ever hold as dear a place in my heart as 2010 did, but I will never get tired of seeing the final out and watching all of the Giants' players jump into each others' arms.

Future fans will be amazed at how lucky Giants fans from the 2010s were. I'm so happy.

Giants clinch the NL West

For some reason, I couldn't believe last night's division clinching-game marked only the 9th time the Giants have won their division since they moved to San Francisco. I felt so spoiled. Nine division titles in 54 years is not a bad percentage when you think about how many Pirates, Royals, Cubs, and Dodgers* fans there are. Those fans would kill to have the division-winning success the Giants have had, especially in the last couple decades.

* I had to take at least one shot at the Dodgers.

Hell, I bet many Giants fans think nine division titles is a huge amount, especially if they became fans before this century. I truly became a fan in 2001. Bonds' chase for one of the most sacred records* in sports grabbed me like I was a skinny-dipper in Cap Cod. I was in attendance for his 71st and 72nd home runs, and there was no going back after that. I might not even be a sports fan if not for Bonds and the Giants' success from 2001-2004.

* Forever asterisked

I've been alive for almost half of the Giants division titles, so my perspective on the Giants' success is a little skewed. Right now, I'm very happy the Giants didn't follow the 2011 script but this season won't be completely satisfying unless it ends with a parade. For much older fans than me, winning this division has to be more meaningful. I've seen how hard it is to win a division, but I've got nothing on the guys and gals who grew up rooting for Mays, McCovey, Perry, Clark, and all the other pre-2000 legends. To enjoy this crown as much as I should, I have to think about the torture these older fans have gone through.

And man, this was a really awesome season. Even more awesome than the 2010 regular season because this team didn't feel the need to give their fans as many heart attacks.

Let's recap. Wilson's gone, season over. Casilla's actually not much worse than Wilson. Nevermind, everyone's closing! Melky's the savior? Melky's the savior! Melky's a traitor. Posey's back! Posey's really back!! WTF Lincecum?? Perfect Cain. Vogelsong is gonna win the Cy Youn... oh, wait. Pence is the bat we needed! Wait, Scutaro is the bat we needed? Pagan sucks. Pay that man! Crawford is worthless. You know who should win the NL Gold Glove at shortstop? Just play Belt everyday dammit! Dodgers need to share their pixie dust. Dodgers need to share their money. LOL Dodgers. So the offense is going to carry the Giants to the playoffs now?

What a season.

Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't expect anything less than a World Championship. Same goes for Nats and Orioles fans. A World title is the only goal a fan should have no matter how much success their team has had in their history.

But we can worry about that next week. Let's celebrate the division title right now and enjoy watching Emmanuel Burriss attempt to get that seemingly unattainable extra-base hit.

New Bleacher Report article

I just finished writing an article on Bleacher Report, saying who I think should win the AL and NL MVPs and who the runner-ups should be.

Buster Posey is obviously on this list, or else I wouldn't be posting this here. I'm not that much of a shameless plugger of my work.

That being said, I'm not going to spoil anything, so click on the damn URL! That's an order!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1335667-top-5-nl-and-al-mvp-candidates-for-2012

Well that was exciting!

So many things happened in this game, I'm gonna have to use a bullet-point format so that my thoughts don't get all jumbled in incoherent paragraphs.

Let's go in chronological order:

• Posey and Pence got AT&T'd hard in that first inning. Thankfully, their homers-in-any-other-ballpark still flew over Justin Upton's head and still resulted in four runs. No way the Giants would blow that 4-0 lead...
• Zito looked really good for four innings, then not so much. I'm done analyzing him. He's a fifth starter. He'll have good outings, he'll have bad outings, and he'll have outings like today where he's good and bad. Cash your chips and be happy you left the casino with a sub-5 ERA from Zeets.
• Guillermo Mota pitched exactly 2 innings since coming back from his 100-game (repeat: 100-game suspension) before he came into today's game. Add the fact that there are now extra bullpen arms because the roster expanded to 40 players and there is absolutely no reason Bochy should have put Mota in this game. A two-run lead in the 6th inning is a high-leverage situation, so why on Earth would you put a guy in who has barely pitched in four months with Goldschmidt and Montero due up? And don't use the excuse that other relievers were tired. Anybody would have been better than Mota in that situation, besides maybe Brad Penny. Bochy has made plenty of smart decisions -- like using a closer-by-committee -- but then completely misuses his bullpen in games like this. I don't get it.
• Kontos, Penny, and Loux were equally as bad as Mota. Kontos gave up two RBI singles after replacing Mota, while Penny and Loux somehow only gave up one run (a good example of how incomplete ERA is as a stat). The 6th though 8th innings involved some of the worst relief pitching I've seen from the Giants in years.
• The Giants always have a "Singalong Inning" in the middle of the 8th, usually with Journey's "Lights" playing if they're winning or "Don't Stop Believin'" if they're losing. The crowd sings along (hence the inning's name), which usually feels cheesy and forced, unless it's a World Series game. Well, as I explained in my last post, the Giants have been pretty hard to watch the last few games I've attended, and hearing "Don't Stop Believin'" every time I went to AT&T was starting to really get on my nerves. I was this close to leaving in the 7th inning just to avoid hearing that stupid song one more time.
• Good thing I sucked it up and stayed. It felt pretty hopeless down 8-5 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 8th, but some the bottom of the order provided some unexpected magic. Hector Sanchez and Brandon Crawford hit back-to-back doubles, making it 8-6. Brandon Belt then hit an RBI single. Angel Pagan struck out, but getting the score to 8-7 definitely re-energized the crowd ("Don't Stop Believin'" certainly didn't, at least not in my mind).
• Oh, I forgot to mention it was Star Wars day at the Park. Tons of people were in Star Wars costumes, everything on the jumbotron was Star Wars themed, it was silly and fun. When the Giants came up to bat, the pictures of the batters' faces shown on the jumbotron had Jedi hoods over their heads. Guess which Giant looked the goofiest. Here's a hint.
• Jean Machi, welcome to the big club.
• Top 9, Marco Scutaro hit a lead-off double (foreshadowing...). After Pablo grounded out, Mr. Unclutch Posey stepped up to the plate. As he so often does, Posey battled and worked the count to 2-2 before scorching a game-tying double past the third-baseman. Great piece of hitting. Can we now shoot down this "Posey isn't clutch" narrative before it has a chance to become an actual thing?
• Sergio Romo: One of the best relievers in baseball.
• Look, I'm glad Brett Pill's bunt ended up working out but people need to stop gushing over it. Aubrey Huff was lauded for his bunt in Game 5 of the World Series that was subsequently followed that inning by Edgar Renteria's huge home run, and I'm not denying that Pill or Huff were unselfish. But bunts are bad plays unless you're an awful hitter or a pitcher. Pill isn't a very good hitter but he's not awful and he's got power, yet he eliminated any chance of a hit in order to move the runner over. For every bunt that results in a run, there are several that result in nothing. I love that Pill's bunt resulted in a run, but I don't like that people actually think sacrifice bunting from powerful position players is a good play.
• Scutaro delivers again! This guy has been so money since he became a Giant. Pence's struggles have been totally neutralized by Scutaro. As bad as I feel for Freddy Sanchez, Scutaro is making his absence pretty easy to handle.

"When life gives you lemons, just trade them to the Red Sox for some expensive hard lemondade" - Dodgers

As you can imagine, I'm pretty pissed, and Jeremy Affeldt's recent struggles are surely not the only reasons.

First, I'll tackle the trade that sent yet another superstar (or superstars, depending on how you view Carl Crawford) to a Los Angeles team.We basically knew this trade was going to happen last night but it didn't become official until today. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash were traded to the Dodgers for James Loney and his overwhelming mediocrity. OK, the Red Sox got a few other players besides Loney, but for me, the previous sentence is the only way I view this trade. I'm not going to get into the ungodly amount of money the Dodgers are taking in, the long-term ramifications, Carl Crawford's injury, or the prospects the Red Sox got in this trade. I'm only focused on two players -- Gonzalez and Beckett -- because those are the only two who are going to make a difference in this NL West race coming down the stretch.

Gonzalez, as we know, is good at baseball things. He didn't hit as many home runs in Fenway as people expected (I mean, he averaged more HRs in his previous five seasons playing at Petco Park), but his average and OBP since he started in Boston have been better -- or at least as good -- than they ever were. If he lights it up these next 36 games, his impact could *gulp* push the Dodgers past the Giants*.

*Of course Gonzalez hit a three-run homer in his first at-bat as a Dodger. OF COURSE HE DID.

Beckett has definitely not been good so far this season, but going from pitching at Fenway Park against AL East lineups to pitching at Dodger Stadium against NL West lineups is a much better situation. But Beckett had a good 2011 season in the same ballpark and division, so it's very possible that he's just not that good anymore. Maybe he's just having an off year, because of the turmoil in Boston, mechanical issues, or a lack of fried chicken in his diet. It's hard to tell with him, which scares me. He might continue to suck or he might provide a significant amount of value. I'm totally prepared for him to have a negative ERA in a Dodgers uniform. I don't even care if the stat geeks and their "mathematical proof" say a negative ERA is impossible.

Crawford won't have any impact in 2012 because he's out for the year and Nick Punto is, well, Nick Punto.

Oh yeah, there was a game today. And I was in attendance*. I was happier forgetting these facts.

*By the way, the previous three games at AT&T Park I attended before today: the 10-0 loss to the Dodgers on 7/28, the 14-2 loss to the Nationals on 8/13, and the 6-4 loss to the Nats on 8/15 (aka the Melky Aftermath game). I'm not superstitious enough to think that my recent luck at Giants games is anything more than bad timing, but seriously, what the hell?

Let's see. The aforementioned Affeldt and the rest of the bullpen grabbed the Giants' hopes of winning and shoved them down a dirty toilet. Madison Bumgarner (who I recently gushed about like he was Marisa Miller pitching out there) gave up a walk and a double to the pitcher Mike Minor (who had a Bondsian .024, .047, .024 batting line going into today) and a three-run homer to Jason Heyward after just walking Minor and Martin Prado. The Giants' lineup basically got shut down by Minor (who had a Madduxian 4.74 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 4.47 xFIP going into today).

Baseball season is most certainly in the dog days of summer. Or maybe that's just the case for the Giants. Not sure.

Such a sweep feeling

If you had told me before this Dodgers series that the Giants would win one of three, I'd honestly have been OK with that. Not because I think the Dodgers are such a great team, but because of the whole "Melky/big series jitters/getting swept by the Dodgers last time" combination. I didn't expect the Giants to lose this series, per se, but my expectations were not all that bright.

Well, luckily the two Giants' horses and their donkey compadre pitched out of their minds (19 Ks, one BB combined by all three) and they got enough contributions from their lineup-by-commitee to slap the faces of nay-sayers (not to be confused with neigh-sayers) like me.

While the injuries to Sandoval and Posey (although they don't seem too serious) are leaving Giants fans a bit sober, big series from Pagan, Scutaro, and Arias certainly make the uphill battle to the playoffs after all the Melky hoopla feel more attainable. I mean, they're leading the division by 2.5 games for Pete's sake. How the hell did that happen?

By the way, Arias did a great Matt Kemp impression in this final game. What a boost this lineup will receive these next 38 games if he continues to be more than just a defensive replacement. I don't expect him to be anything more than average but as long as he isn't Justin Christian up there (sorry Justin, you're just not a very good hitter; great catch, though), a platoon split with him and Crawford at short and the occasional start at third might actually help the lineup much more than anyone ever expected.

Of course, one of my first thoughts after seeing Arias pound the ball all over the field tonight was that he'd be taking at-bats away from Belt. Please, Brandon, just hit a few home runs with RISP. That's all you need to do to harsh the critics, aka Bochy.

Now, while this series was a big one to sweep, it is only August and there are plenty of chances for the Giants to gag and/or the Dodgers and D-Backs to make a run. If Pence keeps struggling and the Giants encounter any sort of injury bug (I've been knocking on wood this whole post, don't worry), they could be fishing in October. I don't see them pulling away from the two teams chasing them, nor do I expect them to completely fall out of it. It should come down to the last couple weeks of the season.

Now excuse me while I go take my meds.

Giants ride the southpaw horse and some quality BABIPing back into first place

I'm not going to go as far as to say that it felt like the Giants dominated last night's game because A) as a 2-1 score often suggests, they didn't dominate, and B) it's not in my nature to feel overly confident about the Giants. But for a game against Clayton Kershaw that was close the whole way, the Giants seemed fairly in control the entire game. The younger, more Southern, Giant version of Kershaw certainly helped the cause.

Matt Cain's nickname is "the Horse", and for good reason, but Bumgarner at least deserves some Horse points for what he's done in his career so far. Yes, he's only 23(!) but his overall consistency, reliability, and durability in his 2-plus seasons in the majors makes him very Cain-like. Maybe I just love Matt Cain (I very much do) and feel like comparing every good pitcher to him, but I think Bumgarner warrants at least some Horse recognition. He could probably use a couple more years in the big leagues.

Bumgarner was amazing last night, only giving up 4 hits and 0 walks in 8 IP while throwing 123 pitches (Horse!!). He also struck out 10, which is never a bad thing to do as a pitcher. The most ridiculous part of his start was the fact that he faced several (I think around five) hitters in 3-2 counts and never walked any of them. From my knowledge, he retired all of those hitters he faced in 3-2 counts, but just the fact that he didn't walk any of those many hitters is pretty spectacular. His strikeout of Matt Kemp with a 3-2 slider in the dirt in the 6th inning with a runner on third was the highlight of MadBum's great outing (I mean, how many pitchers have ever made Kemp look that foolish in a situation like that?). 

Kershaw pitched a hell of game, as well, but the BABIP gods were on the Giants' side last night. Besides Pagan's lead-off double in the 1st inning, none of the Giants other 5 hits were hard-hit. The top of the 6th inning went like this: infield single by Pagan; single by Scutaro (that could've easily been ruled an error on Hanley Ramirez); bloop single by Sandoval, resulting in a run on an extremely close call at the plate. The Giants most certainly had some luck in winning this game but, hey, you need that sometimes if you're trying to win baseball games and make the playoffs. 

Bochy (thinking to himself): "Man, thank God Bumgarner was so good last night because that was not an easy win. We really needed to grind to get those two runs. I shoulda started Christian in left and Theriot at first. We woulda scored plenty of runs then. That Theriot, what a professio... Ah dammit, Theriot can only play second. Ohhh, I shoulda moved Pablo to first and Scutaro to third so Theriot could play second. Gotta have righty hitters against a lefty pitcher. Silly me, getting blinded by things like OBP and talent instead of sticking to my roots. Definitely gotta use that lineup against Capuano on Wednesday. GOT TO. I wonder if Sabes is gonna call up Pill before then..."

Giants lose Melky, game

For as long as I've been a Giants fan (since 2000, give or take), there have been four main depressing games that stick out in my mind: Game 7 of the 2002 World Series (with Game 6 lingering in every Giants fan's head), the Jose Cruz Jr. Dropped Catch Game in the 2003 NLDS, the Ryan Spilborghs Game in 2009, and the Assassination of Buster Posey by the Coward Scott Cousins last season. There have been plenty of other depressing games/moments in that 12-year span but those four games are on the top shelf of depression.

Yesterday's game joined that shelf but for reasons mostly dealing with off-field events, which makes this game much more unique than the other four.

I started out the day in a great mood. For my internship with KNBR, I had an event to work at AT&T Park. The event was sponsored by Supercuts where about a dozen guys won the chance to hit in a batting competition before the game. They were separated into teams with captains Tom Tolbert and Brian Murphy (who are KNBR talk show hosts, for those who don't know). There was a point system that rewarded higher points the further the guys hit the baseball. My job was simply to shag the balls they hit. Nothing else. Oh, and I got a free Standing Room Only ticket for the game after we were done. Pretty ideal day.

As me and the other two interns I was working with left the field and went to find seats, fellow intern Zack showed me the front page of ESPN.com on his phone. And so the depression began.

It took a few minutes for everything to sink in, thoughts swirling through my head. Melky Cabrera is out for the year because of PEDs. Melky Cabrera, Major League hits leader, second-leading MLB hitter in batting average, arguably the Giants' MVP, is done. The PED part of the story was the hardest part to fathom. Posey's freak injury last year was worse than this Melky saga because it was earlier in the year and because the Giants had fewer competent hitters, but injuries are much more common ways for a season to end than failed drug tests. Posey's injury happened in a split second when he had no time to dodge the incoming collision and ACL tear. He didn't choose to get hurt, it just happened and there was was nothing he could've done to stop it without hindsight. Horrible, but unavoidable. Melky would still be playing for Giants these next 44 games if he simply made the choice to not take PEDs. Instead, we got a player who had an amazing 117 games that we can't look at with admiration anymore.

On top of all the thoughts about how the Melky was saw this whole season was illegally enhanced was the fact that one of the most valuable players in the NL this season is going to have to be replaced. I started thinking about the Giants options. Blanco is the obvious replacement. Belt's played left field before; maybe occasionally play him there, put Posey at first and then have Sanchez catch, or even put Pablo at first and move Scutaro, Arias, Crawford, and Theriot around between third, short, and second depending on the matchup. This line of thinking just made me feel worse because none of these options can replace Melky's (tainted) bat.

At this point, the game was just about to start. Awesome, Lincecum against this Nats' lineup, Strasburg against this Melky-less lineup. Thank God this ticket was free. Linceum proceeded to give up two runs in the first-inning, which was bad enough in-and-of-itself until you remember that the three Nats' hits in that inning were softly hit. Crawford's two-run single made us Giants' fans hopeful for a second, but Lincecum's pitch count continued to increase as the Nats started hitting the ball on the screws (How the hell is Danny Espinosa only hitting .255?!). Once Espinosa hit his nuclear-powered rocket of a home run, you knew the game was over. The baseball gods are cruel to teams on the day they lose one of their best hitters to a failed drug test. At least that's what I've heard.

As depressed as yesterday made me, I was able to find some silver linings:
1) Melky might've struggled down the stretch, so replacing him with someone like Blanco might not be that much of a downgrade. In fact, even if Melky continued to rake, his numbers would only be worth about one win above replacement anyway (a possibly important win, but not a drastic number).
2) It felt like the Giants were going to sign Melky to a Rowand-esque contract (5 years, $60 million) at some point before next season, so that contract might've ended up being even worse than Rowand's had Melky gone off the juice and regressed and whatnot.
3) The Giants are one game back of the Dodgers right now. If Pence starts hitting, Pablo keeps doing what he did when healthy, Posey and Belt stay hot, the pitching staff avoids starts like Monday and Wednesday, and the bullpen does alright, they can win this division.
4) Think about how many things have gone wrong for the Giants this season (Wilson's injury, Pablo's frequent DL journeys, Lincecum, the offensive production from middle of the infield). If they can overcome all that and still be near first place at this point of the season, it wouldn't be surprising if they get hot these next 44 games. I'm prepared for anything but it's not like the Dodgers are the Nationals.
5) The Giants are currently only a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot right now, although let's be honest, crazy things don't happen in baseball playoff races in August or September. If you have a Wild Card lead with a month left, there's no way any team can catch you. Sorry, Giants, you're not catching the Dodgers, Pirates, or Cardinals no matter how close you are to them right now.

Favorite moments from the Giants' most dominant win of the year

I guess I should rave about the opposing team more often. Yesterday, I talked about how good the Cardinals' lineup is and how they're a frightening team going forward. I'm not changing this stance, but it's interesting that my last couple somewhat negative posts were followed by the Giants going all Wilt Chamberlain over their opponents (Because they scored a lot. Double entendre! BOOM!) I'm sure this blog had everything to do with the blowouts. It's the only explanation.

Anyway, the Giants beat the Cardinals 15-0 tonight. According to ESPN Stats and Info, this was the largest shutout win by the Giants since a game they played decades ago when they scored less than 15 runs (paraphrasing). As you would probably guess, there were many things I enjoyed about this game. Here are those things:

• The Giants scoring 15 runs.
• The Giants giving up zero runs.
• This win was against a good team, not the Rockies.
• Ryan Vogelsong continuing to quietly be one of the best pitchers in the NL.
• Vogelsong got less run support in this start than in his last (the 16-4 win over the Rockies).
• Melky and Posey staying hot. Both now have .399 OBPs and a combined .537 SLG.
• Allen Craig wasn't in the game.
• Tyler Greene was in the game.
• The Giants doubled their run differential and dropped St. Louis' differential back down to double digits from +114 to +99.
• Marco Scutaro having himself a GAME. 7 RBIs in one game are pretty good, and his first home run in a Giants uniform was a grand slam, which he hit with only an eleven-run lead. Clutch.
• Brandon Crawford showed up, and not just on defense. 
• Hunter Pence had two hits, which drove in the 1st and 3rd runs of the game. Also, Kruk and Kuip's conversation about Pence's on-deck swing, calling it a "hold-off seven iron", was hilarious. For you non-golfers, this is what they were referencing his swing to.
• Brandon Belt also had a two-hit game. If he keeps having solid at-bats like he has the past few games, he might be able to secure the first-base job for the rest of the season ... Bochy, stop looking at Brett Pill like that. Fight the temptation! Wait, Sabean, who are you texting? Is that Lyle Overbay's agent?! NOOOOOO!
• Jose Mijares made his Giants debut, pitching the ninth. He gave up a walk and a hit but was able to get out of it without ruining the shutout. I think he'll be good for the Giants, and they literally gave up nothing for him. He's also only getting paid about $900,000 this year, so picking him up is a no risk, all reward situation.
• The Giants won 15-0.

Good win against a scary team

Usually I'm tearing my hair out watching close Giants games like tonight's (especially when Zito is the pitcher), but this game felt surprisingly stress-free. Posey's first-inning home run certainly helped ease the tension, as did the multitude of hard-hit balls by the Cardinals that flew straight at Giants outfielders (the BABIP gods were with Zito tonight). Sure, it woulda been nice to see Pagan and Pence's fly balls go a couple feet further but they got the W, and that's all that matters.

It's hard to ever feel comfortable against this Cardinals' lineup, though. It seems like every one of their hitters is hitting .300, with good power, and above-average OBP. In fact:

1) Schumaker: .314 BA, .391 OBP, .426 SLG
2) Craig: .298, .362, .573
3) Holliday: .323, .403, .550
4) Beltran: .286, .357, .543
5) Freese: .311, .377, .495
6) Y. Molina: .319, .367, .510
7) Jay: .300, .376, .396
8) Furcal: .267, .336, .343

Besides Furcal, every one of those batting lines is really good. Like start-for-any-major-league-team good. And Furcal would be a huge upgrade over Brandon Crawford and Ryan Theriot. To say St. Louis doesn't miss Albert Pujols is an understatement, and Pujols is still one of the best hitters in the game! How this team isn't leading the division or even leading either of the Wild Card spots is a complete mystery.

The Cards won the World Series last year after a scorching September, taking the Wild Card away from the Braves. Guess who's first in the NL Wild Card team right now. Yup, the Braves. A similar end of the season could be in the cards (I love bad puns) for St. Louis.

As for the Giants, they'll have a solid lineup once Sandoval comes back, and we all know they have pitching, so they might be dangerous in their own right. Thank God they picked up Xavier Nady.

Are the Giants in for another 2011?

I'm often negative about the Giants, especially when they're in slumps like they are right now (lost six of seven games). I'll say things like "they're the worst team in the majors", being semi-sarcastic while also thinking to myself that even the Houston Astros could score 4 runs against Barry Zito (what an awful, awful start he had today) and probably also Tim Lincecum while shutting down the Giants' anemic offense and win a three-game series. It's not healthy, I know, but Giants baseball is torture, as Duane Kuiper reminds us.

So my negative thinking mixed with their recent struggles got me wondering if the Giants are heading down a path similar to the one they went down last year when they blew a division lead they had going into August and missed the playoffs.

I decided to make two categories: one that lists reasons why the Giants might meet a similar 2011-like fate and the other that lists why they might finish strong and make the playoffs. We'll end on the positive list so myself and anyone who reads this will leave with happy thoughts that will help make the Giants' inevitable collapse more bearable ... I'm sorry, I should really just watch this clip instead of Giants games from now on.

Negative Signs

• The Giants were 61-44 though 105 games last year. 56-49 through 105 games this season currently.
• They had a +18 run differential at that point last year. -3 right now. 
• The pitching staff has given up 58 more runs through 105 games this year than last year at the same point.
• The Diamondbacks were 4 games back with a +24 run differential through 105 games last year. Right now, they're 2 games back with a +44 differential. And that's with 2011 MVP candidate Justin Upton and 2011 Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy having much worse years.
• Last year, only the D-backs were contending with the Giants for the division. This season both the D-backs and the Dodgers are within two games of the Giants, and the Dodgers aren't likely to go away after the trades they made.
• Lincecum had a 2.80 ERA through July last season. This year, he's been just a bit worse. 
• Brian Wilson was healthy last year. 
• Brandon Crawford wasn't the everyday shortstop last year. 

Positive Signs

• There's one more Wild Card spot than last year, and right now they're four games worse than second Wild Card leader Atlanta.
• They've scored 37 more runs at this point than through 105 games last year.
• Buster Posey was not healthy last year.
• Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong have all had about the same performance at this point of the season as they did last year.
• Barry Zito, as inconsistent as he's been this year, has actually had a better season than last year (shows how bad he was last year). Last year he was oft-injured and had to move to the bullpen for a time because he was, well, below replacement level. It's a good thing he isn't costing the Giants too much money... (Sorry, I'm being negative again. I'll stop. Promise.)
• Lincecum can only improve from here (one would hope), which would make this already scary pitching staff even scarier.
• Other than Sandoval and Beltran, no one in last year's lineup struck fear in opposing pitchers. This year, even before Hunter Pence arrived, the 3-4-5 punch of Cabrera, Posey, and Sandoval was a middle of the order any team would be happy with. Adding Pence gives the Giants four above-average hitters, given they perform up their ability. A healthy Sandoval would also be nice.
• Scutaro was an underrated pickup, in my mind.
• A lineup of Pagan, Scutaro, Cabrera, Posey, Sandoval, Pence, Belt, and Theriot (my ideal lineup) looks very solid on paper.

There are countless more positives and negatives we could find, but I think those are substantial lists for now. How will the season turn out? Tune in to KNBR 680 to hear every Giants game during this exciting playoff race!*

*I'm interning with the KNBR promotions department this summer, so shameless plugs are basically my job, OK.

Hunter Pence traded to the Giants

While I'm sure Brian Sabean reads this blog religiously, he didn't listen to my trade deadline advice from last night. Earlier today, the Giants acquired Hunter Pence from the Phillies for Nate Schierholtz, AA catcher Tommy Joseph, and Class A pitcher Seth Rosin.

Let's first talk about Pence. He's proven he can hit and hit for power (averaging almost 25 HRs per season over the last four years) while getting on base at a very good rate (.354 career wOBA). His strikeout rate is a little higher than you'd want but he's definitely no Adam Dunn. He's not a great defender but has a canon arm, and his offense makes up for his minor defensive flaws. The Giants also have control over him next year, unlike Carlos Beltran last year who became a free agent after the season, so Pence is not going to be a two-three month rental. The Giants are getting an above-average player who will be in the orange and black for at least another season (barring another trade).

We obviously don't know if Pence is going to rake or become a Shea Hillenbrand (you thought I forgot about you, didn't you, Shea?) but it is unlikely he'll hit home runs at the same rate he has his previous five and a half seasons. His two previous teams, the Phillies and Astros, have two of the best home run-hitting parks for right-handed hitters in baseball. AT&T Park is a bad place for any home run hitter not named Barry Bonds, so Pence might not provide the power we expect from him.

That being said, Pence is a significant upgrade over Gregor Blanco and Schierholtz even if his power declines. I always rooted for Schierholtz and hoped he'd become an everyday starter. He's incredibly athletic and has one of the best arms of any right fielder in the league, but he's always been way to inconsistent at the plate. At 28 years old, it doesn't look like "Nasty Nate" will ever become more than a solid bench player.

Joseph was a top-10 prospect in the Giants system and might've been a good replacement for Posey behind the plate (with Posey then hypothetically moving to first base) but he doesn't look like a franchise-changing player.

Rosin's ceiling is an average major-leaguer, at best.

Overall,  I really like this trade even though I think my Moneyball strategy would've been a wiser option. Compared to last year's Beltran trade, this is a steal. Pence's contract doesn't expire at the end of the season (unlike Beltran's did last season) and the Giants didn't give up one of their highest-rated prospects to get him (gave up Zach Wheeler for Beltran last season).

Does this mean the Giants will win the division? As they say, that's why they play the games.

Giants don't need to make a huge trade

Yes, I watched last night's game against the Mets, mostly because I hate myself and enjoy torture (cue Duane Kuiper) but I was able to find some hope while watching Moneyball in between the hair-pulling.

During the commercials and extremely gloomy moments of the game, I flipped between the Giants game and the great baseball film (and better book) Moneyball. The reason the Oakland A's were so revolutionary back when Moneyball took place (in 2003) was because they found value in players so many other teams overlooked. Instead of signing higher-profile players like Jason Giambi, they replaced him with cheaper players like Scott Hatteberg who weren't as inferior as other teams thought they were.

This narrative had me thinking about the Giants at today's trade deadline. Rumors had the Giants linked in a deal that would bring Hunter Pence to San Francisco. Now obviously Pence would be an upgrade for the Giants' lineup -- like Carlos Beltran was last year -- but I don't think he'd make as big of an impact as Giants fans would hope -- like Beltran last year. Pence would also cost the Giants top-level prospects (the Giants do not have a stacked farm system to begin with), so the risk seems to outweigh the reward.

If the Giants are going to make a trade(s), they should take a page out of Billy Beane and Peter Brand's Paul DePodesta's notebook and focus on smaller-named players who would cost less (in money and prospects) while still providing plenty of value. Players like Marco Scutaro.

Now sure, Scutaro struck out looking with the bases loaded in the ninth inning last night but I would much rather see that at-bat (0-2 count to 3-2, fighting off tough pitches) than 95% of the at-bats Brandon Crawford has. Scutaro isn't a great hitter but he's more than passable especially when you consider his count-working skills (not that important, but certainly a bonus) and a pretty good OBP history (.358 last year, .379 in 2009, .337 career). He's an upgrade over Crawford and Ryan Theriot at the plate and more reliable than Brandon Belt (I need to rant: Belt has been in an atrocious slump as of late and still has a .342 OBP. As inconsistent and frustrating as he is as a hitter, he still walks at an above-average rate, which is such a valuable trait to have in your lineup. I feel like Billy Beane and Peter Brand in a room full of scouts who all hate Belt because of his giraffe-like body. Beane: "What does Belt do, Peter?" Brand: "He gets on base.")

If the Giants can get one or two more hitters like Scutaro, I think they'll easily be able to contend for the division title the rest of the way.

As far as last night's game goes, no need to overreact. A five-game losing streak is obviously never a good thing and they looked horrible against the Dodgers, but they nearly pulled this one out. Romo's recent struggles are definitely concerning but he could just in a tiny funk. I trust him to turn it around. The Giants could definitely use another bullpen arm (is any Giants fan confident in Casilla right now?) but I'd worry about acquiring bats first. The bullpen has been solid all year and 2-3 bad games from a couple relievers should not overshadow the four previous months of quality pitching.

\

Giants' first-half grades

Baseball resumes tomorrow after another exciting All-Star break. OK, maybe the combination of the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game were as exciting as Joe Buck reading a phonebook, but at least Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Matt Cain, and Buster Posey all played major roles in winning the Midsummer Classic. Now, if the Giants make it to the World Series they will have homefield advantage because of their All Stars' efforts, even if their would-be Series opponent ends up with 5, 10, 20 more wins than the Giants (that's totally fair, right?).

With the second half of the season about to begin, I want to give out my grades for three of the Giants' main areas of on-field production: offense, starting pitching, and bullpen.

These grades are determined by the team's first-half performance in one of those three specific areas, how that performance compares to the preseason expectations, and how all of that compares to the rest of the league.

Offense: B+

• Cabrera has been one of the most valuable position players in the NL thus far. While his sky-high BABIP might point to a second-half regression (although, I don't think he'll regress as much as others think), not many hitters have been better in the first half.
• Sandoval missed over a month because of a hand injury but he's been almost as good as his 2009 and 2011 self when in the lineup. Unlike Cabrera, Pablo's rate of success this season is pretty much where people expected it to be.
• We weren't sure what we would get from Posey going into the season, but I don't think anyone would complain about his .289/.362/.458 line at this point in the season. The patience, power, and overall hitting ability we came to expect from him during his rookie season are all still there, just not as explosive as they were when he got called up. Giants fans are just glad to see Posey at and behind the plate (also playing solid defense). The numbers he's put up this season are just gravy at this point.
• Let's talk about the two Brandons -- Belt and Crawford. Belt seems to get a lot of criticism from fans and media members for his mediocre batting average and low home run total (both areas people hoped and expected Belt to produce in), and the criticisms are fair. For a first baseman who was so highly touted going into last season, the high strikeout rate and low home run total are definite signs of concern. But one thing he's really excelled at is drawing walks. In fact, he might be the most patient hitter on the team, as his 14.2 BB% and .358 OBP (.104 higher than his BA) suggest. Getting on base might be the most important thing a hitter can do, so Belt has proven to be more valuable than some people might lead you to believe. Crawford, on the other hand, is just plain awful. I don't care how good his defense is.
• Angel Pagan? Eh. 
• Ryan Theriot? Double Eh.
• Gregor Blanco? Reminds me a lot of Andres Torres in 2010, which means he's been extremely valuable to the Giants. Hopefully he doesn't regress, although nothing he does will ever make us forget this incredible catch.
• Bruce Bochy, please stop giving Hector Sanchez starts at catcher. He has 2 walks in 125 plate appearances. Enough said. 

 Starting Pitching: B-

• Matt Cain = workhorse. His leap from very good pitcher to elite this season shouldn't come as much of a surprise. 
• Madison Bumgarner hasn't been quite as consistent as Cain, but his overall production this season is about where people expected. Look for MadBum to finish the year with an ERA right around 3.00.
• Ryan Vogelsong has carried his 2011 resurgence over into the first half of 2012. Melky is getting all of the attention this year as a surprising star but I'd say Vogelsong's continued success is even more inexplicable.
• Barry Zito has been all over the place this season. He's been dominant at times, utterly dreadful at others, and somewhere in between the rest of the time. At this point, Giants fans will settle with 4.04 ERA and be glad at least hasn't been as bad as...
• ... Tim Lincecum. Almost no one can explain what's happened to him this season. I always hear media members say his velocity is down but in every game I've watched him, he's thrown 90-94 MPH. Velocity ain't his problem. Control and command are his biggest issues (4.66 BB/9 and 1.02 HR/9 this season, by far the most he's ever had in both categories), as it seems like he constantly falls behind hitters and misses his catchers' targets. The question is why have his command and control been so atrocious this season (especially out of the stretch)? No one seems to be able to definitively answer that. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if he doesn't at least have a quality start on Saturday against the Astros, the Giants have to put him in the bullpen or send him down to the minors. He's practically been an automatic loss every time he's taken the mound this season.

 Bullpen: A-  

•  The bullpen hasn't been as good as it was the last couple years and it might not even be in the top-10 in the majors, but given the fact that Brian Wilson (Tommy John surgery) and Guillermo Mota (drug suspension) practically have and will miss all of this season, the Giants' bullpen has been better than I would have imagined.
• Sergio "Don't call me Tony" Romo has been one of the best relievers in the game. It's a joy to watch a guy who barely throws 90 MPH routinely fool hitters with only a fastball-slider combination (it helps that his slider is straight-up FILTHY). 
• Santiago Casilla has done an admirable job until as of late filling in for Wilson. He shouldn't be the closer (read my previous post) but he hasn't been much worse than Wilson was last year.
• Javier Lopez hasn't been nearly as good as he was the past two seasons but he still poses matchup problems for lefty hitters.
• Jeremy Affeldt has quietly been the Giants' second-best reliever (2.90 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 3.39 xFIP), and his .323 BABIP suggests he might even improve in the second half.
• Clay Hensley? See Pagan
• Shane Loux and Steve Edlefsen? See Theriot

 My prediction for the second half: Giants win the NL West. I could easily see all three areas mentioned above regress from the first half and still result in a division championship for the Giants.

The Padres and Rockies are non-factors. The Dodgers had so much going for them in the first half, even a healthy Matt Kemp for the entire the second half might not be able to overcome the regression of the rest of the team. The Diamondbacks are the most worrisome, although they just don't seem to be clicking as much as they were last year (please, please, PLEASE trade Justin Upton, Arizona).

The Giants just feel like best team in this (pretty weak) division. Anything less than a division title would be a disappointment.

Closer-by-committee time for the Giants

Let me start off by saying that I think Santiago Casilla is a good reliever. He's been a key part of the Giants' bullpen (maybe the best bullpen in the majors since 2010) in the last three seaasons, and you'd have to be delusional if you said he wasn't a significant contributor on that 2010 championship team.

But going into the bottom of the ninth inning in last night's final game of the Giants' series against the Nationals, I had almost zero confidence in Casilla closing the game. Part of that was because the Giants' lead shrunk from 5-1 to 5-4 in the previous two innings, but the main reason is that Casilla just hasn't been consistent enough in high-leverage situations to instill calmness in people like me.

His career BB/9 is 4.25, well below the league average. Although his 2.9 BB/9 this season is above league average, this sample size is much smaller (and, therefore, less trustworthy) than his previous combined seasons. If you're a closer and you're walking batters at such a high rate, you set up possible rallies for the other teams at the worst possible times.

Casilla pitched in various types of situations the last two seasons (close leads, close deficits, tie games, large leads, and large deficits), but once he became the closer this season, he started coming in with close leads in the ninth inning in basically every outing. A team can skate by with a pitcher who lets a high rate of hitters get on base when it's the seventh or eighth inning because A) not every situation he's thrown into is a close lead and B) once he gets in trouble, the manager has no fear of pulling him out of the game. But if that pitcher is the closer, he is supposed to get three outs without blowing the tight lead, so his leash is extended and the damage is more likely to worsen.

None of this explains everything that's wrong with Casilla right now, and he was fine up until a few weeks ago, but his last few outings reaffirm my belief that the Giants shouldn't use one designated "closer" but a revolving door of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and possibly other relievers to finish the ninth inning.

The key thing I want out of this closer-by-committee of sorts is for Bochy to use his relievers in the best situations not only for the situation, but also for the individual reliever. If the Giants have a close lead in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning and two of the three batters due up for the opponent are left-handed, Lopez would probably be the best choice unless he has pitched a bunch in recent games (I realize Lopez is used a currently lefty specialist, but I can't remember a time this season where he pitched in the ninth in a save situation). Romo should face the heart of the opposing team's lineup (unless they're mostly lefties) every time the game is close in the late innings (just look at his numbers!) unless he's also pitched too much recently or if Casilla is a better matchup in some way.

These pitchers shouldn't be designated to specific innings but to the most high-leverage situation. Putting Romo in the game in the eighth inning in a one-run game against the 7-8-9 hitters and saving Casilla for the ninth and the top of the order doesn't make sense unless you for some reason think Casilla is the better pitcher (or if you believe the ridiculous notion that Casilla is "better-suited" for the ninth inning than Romo is). Compare the stats; Romo has proven he's better.

Casilla shouldn't be banned from pitching in save situations but he shouldn't be the designated guy for those situations, either. Neither should Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, Penny, etc. If Bochy and the Giants' front office realize how meaningless a save is and use a late inning revolving door of relievers, they'll not only be keeping those pitchers fresh, they'll keep opponents off-balance and, as a result, win more close games -- presumably, at least.

Giants get four All-Stars

If I told you before the season that the Giants would get four All Stars, you probably wouldn't be that surprised. If I then told you that three of those four were position players who were voted in as starters and the one All-star pitcher wasn't named Lincecum or Wilson, you might spit out your coffee in shock.

The craziest part is that all four players might have made the team even if they weren't voted in by the fans.

Melky Cabrera is currently 3rd in the NL in batting average and 10th in OPS, so it would have been a travesty if he was left off the All-Star roster.

While Buster Posey -- with his National League record-setting 7.6 million votes -- isn't having as good of a season as fellow catchers Carlos Ruiz or Yadier Molina, the lack of quality first basemen in the NL (Brian LaHair from the Cubs is the only other NL All-Star first baseman) might entice the coaches to take Posey because of his first base abilities, thus giving the NL team a more deserving player to be a backup first baseman than, say, Freddie Freeman.

Pablo Sandoval is having a decent year but missed over a month due to injury, so his All-Star candidacy is a little harder to defend. However, besides David Wright and (arguably) David Freese, it's hard find any NL third baseman who's been better than Sandoval this season (the 2012 NL is bad).

So, based on the seasons Cabrera, Posey, and Sandoval are having and the (lack of) competition they have in the NL, it isn't that crazy that these three made the All-Star team. (You know what is nuts? Brandon Crawford almost became the NL's starting shortstop. Brandon Crawford!!!). Just not many people at the beginning of the season would have predicted all three of the these guys being this good and popular.

Tell someone before the season that Matt Cain would be an All Star? About as surprising as Kim Kardashian telling you she's dating a professional athlete. While Cain's ascent into arguably being the best pitcher in the game has been a little unexpected, we always knew he had that potential. He might end up being the All-Star Game starter for the NL (although it will probably be R.A. Dickey), which would mean four of the nine NL starters would be Giants. Not since 2002 have the Giants even come close to that many starters.

Credit has to go to the Giants fans, many of whom used all 25 votes on multiple email addresses, for the three Giants position players becoming All-Star starters. For Posey to set the record for NL votes, Sandoval to pass Wright (who plays in the colossal market of New York), and Cabrera to lead all NL outfielders in votes took a huge effort from Giants fans. It's not like Posey, Sandoval, or Cabrera are huge stars, so it's obvious that the only way for those three to pass up bigger-name players like Molina, Wright, Kemp, Braun, and Beltran was from Giants fans and their gigantic voting efforts.

I'm excited to see these four Giants next week in Kansas City, and hopefully the national audience will learn more about these players who have performed so well out here in San Francisco.

A Bum and a shark keep the Giants rolling

You might be wondering A) what the shark reference is about, and B) why I chose to put Gregor Blanco (hint: he's who the shark reference is about) as practically an equal contributor with Madison Bumgarner when "MadBum" had a one-hit shutout. I can explain.

For those who don't know, Blanco's nickname is "white shark." ("Blanco" is Spanish for "white", by the way. You learn something new everyday!). While I was watching tonight's game against the Reds, the great Giants broadcasters Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper were talking about a conversation they overheard between Blanco and Pablo Sandoval before the game. Sandoval was telling Blanco that he should put his hand on the top of his head in the shape of a shark fin whenever he got a hit.

Blanco hit a triple in the bottom of the 7th inning, and as you can see at 0:24 in the clip, he flashes the fin. He and Sandoval do more fin-tastic stunts after Blanco scores and comes back into the dugout. Pablo must be so boring to play with...

Anyway, to make a short story long, I thought this shark fin stuff was fun. Also, my favorite animal has always been the shark, so Blanco and Sandoval's shenanigans struck a special cord with me.

All this being said, I didn't let the shark fun distract me from the shellacking Bumgarner put on the Reds' lineup. One hit, 2 walks, 8 Ks, and an impressive first-to-home sprint on Blanco's triple made this what has to be Bumgarner's best game as a professional, other than Game 4 of the 2010 World Series. The craziest part: he's only 22!

This game was also the 4th straight shutout for the Giants, as well as 36 straight shutout innings, which are both SF Giants records. This is a hot pitching staff right now, and the lineup is providing more than enough runs, which I'm sure makes the pitchers ever more confident.

As long as the injury bug doesn't bite the Giants too hard for the rest of the season, there's no reason this team shouldn't win the division. I worry about Arizona (the Dodgers need more than Matt Kemp being healthy to pose a real threat in this division), but the Giants have a much better lineup than last year's even when Buster Posey was healthy. I'm by no means declaring the Giants NL West winners this early in the season, but making the playoffs is definitely a realistic expectation.

Excuse me while I go knock on some wood.

Misusing Casilla

I don't want to blame Bruce Bochy, Brian Sabean, or other members of Giants' management for the walk-off home run Santiago Casilla gave up against the A's yesterday, but it gets hard to watch Casilla be continually saved (pun semi-intended) for save situations. You might ask, "Shouldn't the closer always and only be used in save situations?"

No, he shouldn't, and I've got plenty of reasons why.

First off, let me just say that the save statistic is one of the most annoying, meaningless stats in baseball. If you're not sure why this is, click on the previous link and read the part where Wes Littleton "earned" a save in a 30-3 game. Looking at the box score, you might understandably be wondering how Littleton earned a save when he entered the game with a 14-3 lead. According to the save rules, if you pitch effectively for at least three innings with a lead, you get a save. I think it's pretty clear why this stat is so dumb.

So why do managers act like save situations are so damn important?

Well, sometimes these situations actually are vital, like if it's the bottom of the ninth inning with bases loaded and one out in a one-run game. You want your best reliever in that situation, and the closer is (or, at least, should be) your best reliever.

But most save situations aren't as dire as the previous scenario. For instance, yesterday was the first time since May 8th (14 saves ago) that Casilla entered a game in a save situation with only a one-run lead to protect. Casilla's two blown saves? Both when he entered the game with a one-run lead. Now, to be fair, Casilla hasn't had too many "Hoffmans" (saves when giving up at least one run), so he's been a shut-down guy in save situations with 2-3 run leads, but it's easy to see how the save stat can make an average reliever look elite.

So why else do managers value save situations so much? Well, because they're misguided.

If the scenario were bottom of the ninth inning, bases loaded, one out, but a tie game, many managers would be reluctant to use their closer there. Unless the manager is simply resting his closer for that game, there's zero reason why he shouldn't use his closer in that situation. If you're trying to win the game, you need to get two outs without giving up a run, so you want your best reliever (your closer) in this spot. If you don't think your closer is the best guy in the bullpen to do the job, he shouldn't be the closer.

This saving the closer for save situations is the main problem I have with how Bochy has been using Casilla this season.

Casilla pitched in all three games against the A's this weekend. In the first game, he pitched the ninth inning with a 5-3 lead when he entered. No issue there. It had been two games since he'd pitched, so he had plenty of rest and there hadn't been any situation earlier in the game where he would've been more helpful. However, he was misused in the second game. The Giants had a four-run lead with two outs and runners on first and second base when Casilla came in. A "save situation". It's as if a siren went off in Bochy's brain that was screeching "SAVE SITUATION!!" before he replaced Shane Loux with Casilla. Bochy should have brought in Clay Hensley or Javier Lopez, both whom had pitched less than Casilla the night before. If one or both of those two pitchers gave up some runs, and the situation became tense, then Casilla would be a good choice to bring in but why waste your closer in a four-run game just because he had a chance to record a save?

If Bochy would just use Casilla (and Sergio Romo, who many think is the best reliever on the Giants) in the tightest spots and ignore the save stat, he would almost certainly see results in the win column. Instead, he risks overusing his closer because the Giants play so many close games where they have small leads in the ninth inning. Maybe Brian Wilson wouldn't be out for the year if Bochy used this method in the previous seasons (only speculating because no one knows if Wilson's arm would've broken down regardless of how he was used).

Get rid of the save!

Perfecto

This highlight says more than any over-long blog post ever could.

Giving Melky his due

I haven't talked about Melky Cabrera very much on this blog, but with the way he's played this month, he deserves to get a post dedicated to him (I'm sure he's stoked).

After his 3-for-4 game against the D-Backs last night, Melky is now hitting .376, with a .420 OBP and a .556 SLG (.423, .454, .658 in May). His third hit in that game was his 50th of the month of May, which broke Willie Mays' May record of 49 hits in 1958. If Melky gets two more hits in tomorrow's game, he'll have set the Giants' record for most hits in any month (albeit a record currently held by Randy Winn).

Melky couldn't have timed this rampage of a month any better. When Pablo Sandoval went down a little less than a month ago with a hand injury, many people were pessimistic about how the month of May would go for the Giants', in both the run and win columns. But thanks to Melky's historic month, along with other solid hitting performances from guys like Angel Pagan and Buster Posey, and pitching that's been pretty good, the Giants have gone 14-9 since Sandoval got hurt. If Tim Lincecum can turn things around, the Giants' upcoming months will look even brighter.

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Although it's a little early to make statements about who won a trade made in the most recent offseason, it's hard to see the Royals ever ending up on the better end of their November deal that sent the Melk Man to the Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.

I don't know much about Verdugo, so I don't want to claim too much about his future. And whether or not he's a highly-touted prospect, you never know how good he'll actually be, but if Verdugo's (unlikely) future stardom is a trade-off for Melky going nuts at the plate (hopefully for more months than just this May), I think Giants' fans will take it, especially considering that pitching (both in the present and the future) isn't the something the Giants are too worried about.

Sanchez has been a mess in his six starts this season and, at the age of 29, isn't likely to fix his control problems and become the elite starter he's had the potential of becoming. I feel bad for him because his no-hitter on July 10, 2009 was one of the best Giants' moments in recent years, and, although he struggled for most of the 2010 postseason, was a big key to the Giants getting there (he had by far his best season as a starter, including a gutsy performance on the last day of the regular season that resulted in a Giants' win that cliched the division).

Melky definitely won't continue hitting at this pace, but if he can hit somewhere around the numbers he had last year, the Giants will be more than happy. It is still only May, but Giants fans have to believe -- in the next couple years when they look back -- that their team won that aforementioned trade. Hopefully, Melky will continue to hit like an All-Star and, in doing so, haunt Royals fans even more than he already has.

Poor Royals fans.

Advanced stats can be such party poopers sometimes

Like most people, I enjoy being right, especially when making predictions about the future. That's why so many people like betting on sporting events. But not every correct prediction I make is one I'm proud of.

A month ago, Barry Zito had an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, yet his advanced stats raised some big concerns. When a pitcher's BABIP is below league average and his FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA, he will almost certainly regress. This was the case with Barry Zito, but up until yesterday, he hadn't really regressed (no more than 4 ER given up in any start).

Then yesterday happened.

First this happened. Then this. Then this (painful for more than just Giants fans). And, finally, this. All in two innings.

Somehow, only four of those eight runs were earned (although, Zito helped start the mess by throwing the ball away on a sacrifice bunt by the second batter of the first inning, Norichika Aoki) but that doesn't mask the fact that this start by Zito was completely dreadful, and a long time coming according to his advanced stats.

I don't know what's worse: knowing that Zito will eventually have a bad start(s), thus not being able to enjoy his hot beginning to the season as much, or enjoying his hot start and having hope that he's finally going to have a good season, only to be disappointed when he starts struggling again. I guess the right answer is that both scenarios suck.

On the bright side, Tim Lincecum's FIP (2.92) and xFIP (3.50) are outstanding, while his BABIP (.353) is much higher than league average. Since league average and Lincecum's career average BABIP are more than .05 points lower, he should start to improve fairly soon. Unless he keeps getting into home plate collisions...

Interleague play starts today

Interleague play is back for it's 15th season, and 2012 will be the last season with the interleague format that's been in place since AL-NL match-ups began in 1996 (mainly because the Houston Astros are moving to the AL next season).

But that's a topic for another blog post. Today, I just want to talk about some of this weekend's matchups. I'll obviously talk about the Series by the Bay, but there are a few other series that deserve to be mentioned, as well.

Oakland A's vs. San Francisco Giants

Over/under on combined runs scored these three games. Twenty? Twelve? Six? Will we see three games like the April 18th Giants-Phillies game?

You get my point. These are two teams that don't score many runs (Giants are 25th, A's 27th in the MLB in Runs Scored), while being above-average in the pitching department (Giants 5th, A's 11th in MLB team ERA). So if you like seeing very few batters getting on base and runners getting stranded the few times they do get on base, this is your kind of series.

Of course, we might end up seeing a bunch of 9-8 games because that's just how baseball is sometimes. Baseball is basically Roddy Piper.

Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The "Overblown by ESPN" series of the weekend. The folks in Bristol, CT love talking about the Red Sox, and the Phillies aren't too far behind as far as attention from ESPN goes, so expect to see these games lead-off "Baseball Tonight" all weekend.

As overhyped as it might end up being, this match-up is still pretty intriguing: 

• You've got two franchises that have been near the top of baseball for the past decade or so but are currently struggling because of lack of balance (Phillies have plenty of pitching, but Giants/A's-like hitting; Sox have plenty of hitting, but not enough pitching or healthy clubhouse snacks).

• The Phillies' Jonathan Papelbon has a chance to face his former team -- who he helped win two World Series -- for the first time since he left. 

• Another Boston-Philly series (Celtics vs. 76ers) is going on this weekend. 

• Both teams are playoff contenders who are around .500 right now, so winning this series would help cool down the rabid fanbases that are in both Boston and Philly.

 

There are definitely some interesting storylines to keep an eye on, even though it seems more likely that the broadcasters and talking heads are going to focus less on the interesting stories and more on the annoying ones.

Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This is probably the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are 24-15 (tied with Texas for the third-best overall record in baseball) and, if you were to take a poll from baseball experts right now, are probably a top 2 or 3 candidate to represent their league in the World Series.

This might not be as glamorous as the Red Sox-Phillies series, but if you like quality all-around baseball, these two teams are probably the most likely to deliver it.

Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

You know how I said the Braves-Rays matchup is the most likely interleague series to feature the best quality of baseball this weekend? Think about the complete opposite of that, and you've got Twins vs. Brewers.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

These are two teams with talented young players that currently have top-6 MLB records, and no one expected them to be near the top of the standings at any point this season . Will they continue to be this good all season? The Nats are probably a little more likely than the O's, but no one really knows. Their fanbases should just be happy this series is being looked at more like the Braves-Rays series than the Twins-Brewers series.

Seven Runs!!!

Who care's if the Giants have won 13% of their games this year in which they've given up 5 or more runs? This is only the fifth game where they've scored 7 or more runs all season.

Would a Texas Rangers' fan manically laugh at the fact that I wrote an excited blog post about my favorite team scoring 7 runs? Probably, but when your team is the Giants, you don't care whatsoever because they just scored seven flipping runs!

Also, any Rangers' fan making fun of the Giants can watch this clip. Followed by this.

Tulowitzki gets hurt sitting in the dugout

I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often, especially because there seem to be so many hard-hit foul balls that fly into teams' dugouts.

In the eighth inning of last night's Giants game against the Rockies, Dexter Fowler was batting and hit a screaming line drive foul ball into his dugout, hitting Troy Tulowitzki in his left leg. You can see in the video that Tulowitzki was obviously in pain after being hit. He did end up getting an AB in (resulting in an infield single) but he left the game right after he reached first base.

Hopefully Tulowitzki isn't seriously injured, not just because he's on my fantasy team (fingers crossed!), but mainly because you hate to see anyone get hurt, especially on such a fluky play like the one last night.

Giants' pitchers won't be too bummed if he misses the rest of this series, though.

Pablo Sandoval out for 4-6 weeks

Getting swept in a three-game home series while scoring 5 total runs is very frustrating, like having to rush out the door in the morning because you woke up late. Losing your best hitter in the process of this sweep is migraine-inducing, like running to the bus stop after waking up late and seeing the bus you had to catch start driving away.

Today, we found out that Pablo Sandoval will be out for at least a month with a broken bone in his left hand, the same hand he hurt last year which caused him to miss some time. The injury will require surgery.

This is obviously a big blow, and of the Giants' hitters, there are really only two they cannot afford to lose: Sandoval and Buster Posey. We saw how much the Giants missed Posey last year, and losing Sandoval until June will not feel much better. I guess the one silver lining with Sandoval is that he's only out for about a month.

As much as the Giants need Pablo's bat, they should be 100% sure he's ready to play before they bring him back. Missing a month is bad, but it's much better than missing several months or, gulp, a whole season because he wasn't healthy enough to start playing again (sorry, Giants fans; I know that's the last thing you wanted to ponder).

It looks like Connor Gillaspie will be Sandoval's main replacement, and he is a promising youngster (who's older than me, but whatever), so hopefully he can become a spark plug for a team that desperately needs one.

On the bright side, at least the Giants didn't lose their All-Star closer for the season. Oh, wait.