Giving Melky his due

I haven't talked about Melky Cabrera very much on this blog, but with the way he's played this month, he deserves to get a post dedicated to him (I'm sure he's stoked).

After his 3-for-4 game against the D-Backs last night, Melky is now hitting .376, with a .420 OBP and a .556 SLG (.423, .454, .658 in May). His third hit in that game was his 50th of the month of May, which broke Willie Mays' May record of 49 hits in 1958. If Melky gets two more hits in tomorrow's game, he'll have set the Giants' record for most hits in any month (albeit a record currently held by Randy Winn).

Melky couldn't have timed this rampage of a month any better. When Pablo Sandoval went down a little less than a month ago with a hand injury, many people were pessimistic about how the month of May would go for the Giants', in both the run and win columns. But thanks to Melky's historic month, along with other solid hitting performances from guys like Angel Pagan and Buster Posey, and pitching that's been pretty good, the Giants have gone 14-9 since Sandoval got hurt. If Tim Lincecum can turn things around, the Giants' upcoming months will look even brighter.

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Although it's a little early to make statements about who won a trade made in the most recent offseason, it's hard to see the Royals ever ending up on the better end of their November deal that sent the Melk Man to the Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.

I don't know much about Verdugo, so I don't want to claim too much about his future. And whether or not he's a highly-touted prospect, you never know how good he'll actually be, but if Verdugo's (unlikely) future stardom is a trade-off for Melky going nuts at the plate (hopefully for more months than just this May), I think Giants' fans will take it, especially considering that pitching (both in the present and the future) isn't the something the Giants are too worried about.

Sanchez has been a mess in his six starts this season and, at the age of 29, isn't likely to fix his control problems and become the elite starter he's had the potential of becoming. I feel bad for him because his no-hitter on July 10, 2009 was one of the best Giants' moments in recent years, and, although he struggled for most of the 2010 postseason, was a big key to the Giants getting there (he had by far his best season as a starter, including a gutsy performance on the last day of the regular season that resulted in a Giants' win that cliched the division).

Melky definitely won't continue hitting at this pace, but if he can hit somewhere around the numbers he had last year, the Giants will be more than happy. It is still only May, but Giants fans have to believe -- in the next couple years when they look back -- that their team won that aforementioned trade. Hopefully, Melky will continue to hit like an All-Star and, in doing so, haunt Royals fans even more than he already has.

Poor Royals fans.

Advanced stats can be such party poopers sometimes

Like most people, I enjoy being right, especially when making predictions about the future. That's why so many people like betting on sporting events. But not every correct prediction I make is one I'm proud of.

A month ago, Barry Zito had an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, yet his advanced stats raised some big concerns. When a pitcher's BABIP is below league average and his FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA, he will almost certainly regress. This was the case with Barry Zito, but up until yesterday, he hadn't really regressed (no more than 4 ER given up in any start).

Then yesterday happened.

First this happened. Then this. Then this (painful for more than just Giants fans). And, finally, this. All in two innings.

Somehow, only four of those eight runs were earned (although, Zito helped start the mess by throwing the ball away on a sacrifice bunt by the second batter of the first inning, Norichika Aoki) but that doesn't mask the fact that this start by Zito was completely dreadful, and a long time coming according to his advanced stats.

I don't know what's worse: knowing that Zito will eventually have a bad start(s), thus not being able to enjoy his hot beginning to the season as much, or enjoying his hot start and having hope that he's finally going to have a good season, only to be disappointed when he starts struggling again. I guess the right answer is that both scenarios suck.

On the bright side, Tim Lincecum's FIP (2.92) and xFIP (3.50) are outstanding, while his BABIP (.353) is much higher than league average. Since league average and Lincecum's career average BABIP are more than .05 points lower, he should start to improve fairly soon. Unless he keeps getting into home plate collisions...

Interleague play starts today

Interleague play is back for it's 15th season, and 2012 will be the last season with the interleague format that's been in place since AL-NL match-ups began in 1996 (mainly because the Houston Astros are moving to the AL next season).

But that's a topic for another blog post. Today, I just want to talk about some of this weekend's matchups. I'll obviously talk about the Series by the Bay, but there are a few other series that deserve to be mentioned, as well.

Oakland A's vs. San Francisco Giants

Over/under on combined runs scored these three games. Twenty? Twelve? Six? Will we see three games like the April 18th Giants-Phillies game?

You get my point. These are two teams that don't score many runs (Giants are 25th, A's 27th in the MLB in Runs Scored), while being above-average in the pitching department (Giants 5th, A's 11th in MLB team ERA). So if you like seeing very few batters getting on base and runners getting stranded the few times they do get on base, this is your kind of series.

Of course, we might end up seeing a bunch of 9-8 games because that's just how baseball is sometimes. Baseball is basically Roddy Piper.

Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The "Overblown by ESPN" series of the weekend. The folks in Bristol, CT love talking about the Red Sox, and the Phillies aren't too far behind as far as attention from ESPN goes, so expect to see these games lead-off "Baseball Tonight" all weekend.

As overhyped as it might end up being, this match-up is still pretty intriguing: 

• You've got two franchises that have been near the top of baseball for the past decade or so but are currently struggling because of lack of balance (Phillies have plenty of pitching, but Giants/A's-like hitting; Sox have plenty of hitting, but not enough pitching or healthy clubhouse snacks).

• The Phillies' Jonathan Papelbon has a chance to face his former team -- who he helped win two World Series -- for the first time since he left. 

• Another Boston-Philly series (Celtics vs. 76ers) is going on this weekend. 

• Both teams are playoff contenders who are around .500 right now, so winning this series would help cool down the rabid fanbases that are in both Boston and Philly.

 

There are definitely some interesting storylines to keep an eye on, even though it seems more likely that the broadcasters and talking heads are going to focus less on the interesting stories and more on the annoying ones.

Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This is probably the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are 24-15 (tied with Texas for the third-best overall record in baseball) and, if you were to take a poll from baseball experts right now, are probably a top 2 or 3 candidate to represent their league in the World Series.

This might not be as glamorous as the Red Sox-Phillies series, but if you like quality all-around baseball, these two teams are probably the most likely to deliver it.

Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

You know how I said the Braves-Rays matchup is the most likely interleague series to feature the best quality of baseball this weekend? Think about the complete opposite of that, and you've got Twins vs. Brewers.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

These are two teams with talented young players that currently have top-6 MLB records, and no one expected them to be near the top of the standings at any point this season . Will they continue to be this good all season? The Nats are probably a little more likely than the O's, but no one really knows. Their fanbases should just be happy this series is being looked at more like the Braves-Rays series than the Twins-Brewers series.

Seven Runs!!!

Who care's if the Giants have won 13% of their games this year in which they've given up 5 or more runs? This is only the fifth game where they've scored 7 or more runs all season.

Would a Texas Rangers' fan manically laugh at the fact that I wrote an excited blog post about my favorite team scoring 7 runs? Probably, but when your team is the Giants, you don't care whatsoever because they just scored seven flipping runs!

Also, any Rangers' fan making fun of the Giants can watch this clip. Followed by this.

Tulowitzki gets hurt sitting in the dugout

I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often, especially because there seem to be so many hard-hit foul balls that fly into teams' dugouts.

In the eighth inning of last night's Giants game against the Rockies, Dexter Fowler was batting and hit a screaming line drive foul ball into his dugout, hitting Troy Tulowitzki in his left leg. You can see in the video that Tulowitzki was obviously in pain after being hit. He did end up getting an AB in (resulting in an infield single) but he left the game right after he reached first base.

Hopefully Tulowitzki isn't seriously injured, not just because he's on my fantasy team (fingers crossed!), but mainly because you hate to see anyone get hurt, especially on such a fluky play like the one last night.

Giants' pitchers won't be too bummed if he misses the rest of this series, though.

Pablo Sandoval out for 4-6 weeks

Getting swept in a three-game home series while scoring 5 total runs is very frustrating, like having to rush out the door in the morning because you woke up late. Losing your best hitter in the process of this sweep is migraine-inducing, like running to the bus stop after waking up late and seeing the bus you had to catch start driving away.

Today, we found out that Pablo Sandoval will be out for at least a month with a broken bone in his left hand, the same hand he hurt last year which caused him to miss some time. The injury will require surgery.

This is obviously a big blow, and of the Giants' hitters, there are really only two they cannot afford to lose: Sandoval and Buster Posey. We saw how much the Giants missed Posey last year, and losing Sandoval until June will not feel much better. I guess the one silver lining with Sandoval is that he's only out for about a month.

As much as the Giants need Pablo's bat, they should be 100% sure he's ready to play before they bring him back. Missing a month is bad, but it's much better than missing several months or, gulp, a whole season because he wasn't healthy enough to start playing again (sorry, Giants fans; I know that's the last thing you wanted to ponder).

It looks like Connor Gillaspie will be Sandoval's main replacement, and he is a promising youngster (who's older than me, but whatever), so hopefully he can become a spark plug for a team that desperately needs one.

On the bright side, at least the Giants didn't lose their All-Star closer for the season. Oh, wait.

More reasons why Matt Cain's big contract extension was smart

I wish I had noticed this when I wrote about Cain's extension a month ago: his advanced stats reveal a pitcher who has consistently improved each season.

When trying to measure how good a pitcher actually is, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) are great stats to use because they only look at things pitchers have a significant amount of control over (like walks, strikeouts, and home runs).

Cain's FIP during his first four full seasons was pretty constant, never going above 3.96 but never going below 3.78. He was basically right at the league average. His FIP during his next two seasons, though, were 3.65 (in 2010) and 2.91 (in 2011). His 2.91 FIP last season was a huge improvement from his previous five seasons and was well above the league-average in that category.

However, Cain's career FIP isn't a good indicator of future improvement because his FIP numbers in his first five seasons were all about the same and didn't steadily improve. His xFIP, though, is an encouraging sign for Giants fans, and I wonder if the Giants' front office (as well as Cain's agent) looked at his career xFIP numbers when negotiating his contract extension. His xFIP improved in each of his six seasons, going from 4.59 (well below average) in 2006 to 3.78 (well above average) last season.

xFIP isn't the only stat one should use when trying to predict a pitcher's future and it is has it's fair share of flaws, but any pitcher who has steadily improved in that category for six straight seasons with a minimum of 190 innings each season (as is the case with Cain) is someone who is very likely to continue improving.

What can we expect from Cain this season? The stats point to Cain regressing a little from the hot start he's had so far because he's giving up a low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), but there are some factors to keep in mind.

First off, it's still early in the season, so it's hard to read too much into his stats since he's only started five games.

Secondly, his extremely low BABIP doesn't necessarily mean he's been lucky. His career BABIP of .262 is about .03 points lower than the league average, which is a pretty significant difference. Usually if someone's BABIP is that low, the pitcher is experiencing an unsustainable amount of luck, but since .262 is his career BABIP over six full seasons, it's hard to believe those results are solely because of luck. It's very likely that Cain has just been very good at limiting opposing hitters from hitting his pitches squarely.

In two straight starts against the Pirates and the Phillies, he pitched a combined 18 innings, with 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, and 15 Ks. You'd have to be unspeakably lucky to do that without simply pitching lights-out.

I didn't watch either start, so I don't know for sure if he was getting very lucky, consistently causing the opposing lineup to hit soft balls in play, or a combination of both. He did pitch against two dreadful offenses, so you could attribute the low BABIP in those games both to Cain making good pitches that resulted in softly hit outs and to the Pirates' and Phillies' hitters not being good enough to hit his pitches sharply.

Cain's BABIP will almost certainly rise as the season goes on, but as long as it doesn't go too much above his career average and his FIP and xFIP stay above-average (currently 3.54 and 3.67, respectively), he should have a great year.