Friday, March 29, 2013

Buster Posey signs a mega-extension

Well, it looks like Buster Posey will be a Giant for at least nine more years. I think I'll just type that sentence 50 more times and call it a day, sound good?

There's obviously a lot to like with this contract.

First of all, Buster Posey will be a Giant for at least nine more years, but this is much different than the deal Albert Pujols signed last year. Posey is one of the best hitters in the game and will only be 34 years old when this deal ends (Pujols will be in his 40s when his ends), so the Giants will employ Posey during the heart of his prime, not after it.

This also isn't a crazy contract. Sure, nine years is a long time, but the money isn't over-the-top when you consider he's a catcher with two rings and an MVP trophy. $167 over nine years is practically the same price per year as $126 over seven, for gosh sakes.

Plus, with baseball's rapidly increasing revenue streams, $22 million for one season (what Posey will earn in 2022 if the Giants pick up his option) won't seem like that much in a decade.

While obviously not small, Posey's contract is only the second-largest given to a catcher in the 2010s. Joe Mauer and his $184 million deal hold that honor, and it's very possible that other potential star catchers like Matt Wieters and Travis d'Arnaud will sign richer deals than Posey's in the next nine years.

Mauer's an interesting comparison to Posey for more reasons than just his ridonkulous contract. Both are phenomenal hitters who have experienced some injury trouble, and people always debate about whether or not they should permanently move to first base.

If Posey ends up like Mauer in two years -- still great but battling injuries -- I doubt people will complain one bit about the deal.

Besides, this situation is probably closer to a worst-case scenario than best-case. If Posey performs anywhere close to the level he did last season, this will look like a bargain.

This deal is yet another case of the Giants locking up their key championship pieces long-term.

Yesterday, the Giants signed Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean to stay with the team until 2016. They also signed Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner to huge deals last year.

All of these guys have proven their worth, so even if they aren't performing at peak level by the end of their contracts, Giants fans will always have two championship banners to gleefully stare at. Those titles wouldn't have been happened without the contributions of these five men.

Buster Posey will be a Giant for at least nine more years. Say it with me: Buster Posey will be a Giant for at least nine more years.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Reevaluating the awfulness of Barry Zito's contract

A little over a month ago, right after the Giants won the World Series, I sent an email to ESPN's Baseball Today podcast. The question I asked: Did Barry Zito's performance this past postseason validate the 7-year, $126 million contract he signed in 2007?

The podcast's hosts, Eric Karabell and Keith Law, read my email on the show (very humblebraggy, I know). Karabell didn't completely dismiss this question but Law did, saying that two games could never make up for six years of a player who's only been worth seven wins.

I mostly agree with Law's sentiment if we're solely talking about value. Zito obviously hasn't been worth the astronomically high contract he was given and even a Cy Young-caliber performance next season wouldn't change this fact. But the Giants have won two World Series during Zito's career in San Francisco. Even though Zito hasn't been a key player in either 2010 or 2012 (his two great playoff starts notwithstanding), what more could Giants fans have asked for when Zito joined the team six years ago?

Let's say the Giants didn't sign Zito and spent that $126 million on a bunch of other players who all performed at a level that justified their contracts. If you told Giants fans that their team would win one World Series, much less two, in the the time period from 2007-2012, every one of them would sacrifice multiple other seasons for a chance to be champs just once. Sure, spending the $126 million on a larger number of players who each provided more value than Zito would have probably netted more regular season wins and maybe one or more postseason births, but two titles is more than even the deepest, most talented teams would expect in a three-year span (just ask the Rangers).

I haven't even mentioned Aaron Rowand yet, another head on the Mount Rushmore of Awful Giants Contracts. The Giants payed him $13.6 million to be a bench player on the 2010 team and payed him the same amount in 2012 even though he wasn't on the team. Zito made $18.5 million in 2010 while not even pitching in the playoffs. If you're scoring at home, that's $45.7 million paid to two players who were basically non-factors during the Giants' two championship years.

Rowand and Zito haven't been the only two Giants players with bad contracts during these last three seasons, either. This shows that A) the rest of your team needs to be smartly, efficiently crafted, B) being rich helps, and C) you need a lot of luck to win a World Series.

For every Rowand and Zito there's an Andres Torres, Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, etc. who have performed incredibly well while costing a criminally low amount of money. GM Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants' front office deserve as much credit for their drafting, signing of free agents, and trading as they deserve blame for their, well, drafting, signing of free agents, and trading. They've drafted players who never contributed a thing to the Giants, signed free agents like Zito, and made awful trades that have or might come back to haunt them. But they've also drafted a slew of great pitchers, signed undervalued players like Aubrey Huff (2010 version), and stolen trades like the ones that landed Scutaro and Melky Cabrera.

It also helps when you have a top-10 MLB payroll, as the Giants have had each of the last three seasons. Poor teams like the Rays and A's have to be extra smart about who they spend their money on if they want to contend, but the Giants can make huge mistakes and still sign the Bumgarners and Matt Cains of the world to large extensions.

All this being said, the Giants wouldn't have won either of these past two titles without a fair amount of luck. The on-field luck involved in baseball might be higher than in any other team sport, especially when you get into the small sample size that is the MLB playoffs. But think about how lucky Sabean has been in his "shrewd" signings and trades. Without players like Scutaro, Huff, Cody Ross, and Javier Lopez, the Giants might still be searching for their first title in San Francisco. Scutaro and Ross, especially, got hot at the most opportune times and will forever be know as heroes to Giants fans. I do think Sabean deserves credit for finding these guys, but I don't think there's any way he could have foreseen the impact they would have on his team.

To win a title, you need to be lucky and good.

So, to answer my Barry Zito question at the beginning: no, his contract is irredeemable, but it didn't prevent the Giants from achieving their goal. His two great performances in this past postseason certainly provided some value but didn't make up for the 150+ mediocre starts he made since 2007. If you're a Giants fan, you're happy about the titles but you hope Sabean doesn't make too many mistakes like this again because spending a ton of money on bad players isn't a winning strategy. Ned Colletti knows what I'm talking about.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Just how amazing was Buster Posey's season?

The World Series ended nearly a month ago and Buster Posey was awarded the NL's Most Valuable Player honor over a week ago, so every Giants fan should have a proper appreciation for Posey's brilliant season by now, right?

Maybe I'm alone but the Giants fan writing this post is still trying to process everything Posey accomplished, not only his brilliant regular season and playoff heroics but also everything that preceded 2012.

In August, I wrote about Melky Cabrera's suspension and where the game on the day of that suspension ranked on the list of worst games in the Giants' 21st century history. That game joined four others that I'll always painfully remember, and quite possibly the worst game of the five was on May 25, the game where Buster Posey suffered a season-ending knee injury.

I didn't see the play live (thankfully) but once I saw the replays, I knew it was a serious injury. For a day Giants fans had the images of Posey's leg bending in a way legs aren't supposed to bend, Posey grabbing the dirt in pain, and Posey being helped off the field. If the earliest possible return was October, Giants fans would've rejoiced.

Then we heard he was done for the year, and while we still had hope for the season, a part of every Giants fan knew the playoffs were unlikely with Posey out of the lineup*. Headlines like this made us wonder if his 2010 season was actually going to be his best.

*His 1.8 WAR (FanGraphs' version) was the third-best by a Giants position player for the entire 2011 season. And people were blaming Carlos Beltran for the Giants August-September collapse?? (By the way, Beltran's 1.3 WAR in his two months with the Giants was the fifth-best among all Giants position players for the season.)

I'm not trying to be hyperbolic when I say this: before the 2012 season, I didn't care how well Posey produced as long as his knee stayed healthy. Just thinking about him squatting for nine innings and 80+ games (if we were lucky) made me feel like I was reliving Game 6 of the 2002 World Series*.

*I'd still probably put this game ahead of the Posey injury game on the aforementioned "Worst Game of the 2000s" list, but the fear surrounding his injury was more long-term than losing Game 6. The Giants still had a chance to win the World Series the day after that Game 6 or in the years following 2002, but when Posey went down the entire future was in question. Would his injury prevent him from having a great career and how much would that effect the entire Giants franchise and their ability to win down the road? We were all considering the worst-case scenarios.

Posey's March/April was great (.353 BA, .413 OBP, .603 SLG) but Giants fans knew it had only been a month and we were just focused on the fact that he made it through a month unscathed.

He didn't hit very well in May but, again, no DL time. June was a decent month hitting-wise but a great month avoiding injuries-wise.

By the All-Star break, his numbers looked pretty nice and we were pumped that he was the starting NL catcher in the Mid-summer Classic. Even if he didn't totally deserve to start, most people believed he at least deserved to be an All Star. Giants fans never said to themselves, "We're glad he's an All Star and all, but his knee could really use this time off to rest." The Giants were playing well and a healthy Buster Posey was a big reason.

Then he completely went off. In September, Posey's OPS was 1.023, which was lower than either of his July or August figures. It wasn't a coincidence that the Giants pulled away from the Dodgers to win the division while Posey was tearing up the league.

While there was a huge debate as to who the AL MVP should be (don't get me started), most people expected Posey to take the NL award when the season ended. People liked his amazing comeback story and the fact that he was on a playoff team, but his numbers -- whether you prefer traditional or sabermetric -- stacked up well compared to every other NL MVP candidate. Other than baserunning, he didn't do a thing poorly in 2012.

Posey's 8.0 WAR trailed only Mike Trout's 10.0 by position players and it was also the highest by a Giants hitter since Bonds' 11.9 (11.9!) in 2004. In fact, no Giants' position player had a WAR higher than 6.9 since in between that Bonds season and Posey's season this year.

Also, Posey is a homegrown player. As Grant Brisbee pointed out, the Giants haven't had very much success drafting and developing position players, which makes Posey even more special.

So to recap: Posey had a horrific, might-never-be-the-same-again injury in May 2011, recovered and was healthy enough to be the 2012 opening day catcher, played well enough in March through July to (deservedly) become an All Star, and played out of his mind in the second half to win the NL MVP award and help the Giants make the playoffs.

Did I miss anything?

Oh right, he also did this. Which eventually allowed him to do this.

Some people say it's a coincidence that Buster Posey has won a ring in both of his only two full seasons in the big leagues (which happen to be the only two seasons in which the Giants have won the World Series in San Francisco). I don't have a rebuttal, I just wanted to type that sentence. Buster Flipping Posey!



Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The long overdue "Giants win the World Series!" post

It's been over a week since the Giants won the World Series, but I have a good excuse for taking this long to write about it: I'm a college student. College students have class to go to and homework to do on weekdays, and weekends are equally as tough on our brain cells. Get off my back!

OK, this excuse-making might be pointless based on the lack of readers I have but I still feel bad for taking this long. Today, November 6th, is the perfect day to write this post because it's not like anything important is going on in our country right now. No distractions whatsoever.

So, let me say this again: THE GIANTS WON THE WORLD SERIES. I could type that line 100 times in row with no other words and it would be a more delightful post than the one I'm actually writing but I'm not that lazy. This is the second title in three years for the Giants, which has some people uttering the word "dynasty." You may agree with this Giants' dynasty billing or you may totally disagree but I don't care about this storyline right now. That can wait a few months when we get closer to next season. Right now, all I care about is the 2012 team and how freaking happy it makes me to think about those players (except you, Melky).

"Happy" might seem like an overly-simplistic word to use to describe the Giants winning the World Series (my fingers get giddy typing those six words) but it is the best word to describe this season. In 2010, the word describing the season was "torture", so I think you understand why I haven't tried to find a more eloquent word than "happy" to describe my feelings. The Brian Wilson injury and the Melky drama were definitely rough patches but everything else this season overshadowed those low points.

Oh, did I depress you by bringing up Melky and Wilson? Here are some soothing words: Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan, Ryan Vogelsong, Pablo Sandoval, Barry Zito (I can't believe it, either), Sergio Romo, Brandon Crawford's defense, Madison Bumgarner pitching in the World Series, Bruce Bochy's playoff managing, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt's charming weirdness, etc. etc. etc. I could literally list the whole team and a Giants fan would smile just as much for every player/coach.

Each of those names listed above gives me an equal amount of joy, even if their individual narratives are drastically different. I might even right separate posts on each player and why I'm so happy for them because this post would be way way way too long.

The playoff comebacks were amazing but surprisingly not very stressful. Besides Game 3 of the NLDS, none of the Giants' wins in elimination games were close. They dominated every game, which turned our fear into confidence and eventually that turned into pure joy when they improbably won the two series. After Game 1 of the World Series, confidence was through the roof, so Giants fans couldn't help but feel a great sense of bliss.

This post might be all over the place but I don't know if I can write a perfectly structured post on this World Series. No Giants' championship will ever hold as dear a place in my heart as 2010 did, but I will never get tired of seeing the final out and watching all of the Giants' players jump into each others' arms.

Future fans will be amazed at how lucky Giants fans from the 2010s were. I'm so happy.


Sunday, September 23, 2012

Giants clinch the NL West

For some reason, I couldn't believe last night's division clinching-game marked only the 9th time the Giants have won their division since they moved to San Francisco. I felt so spoiled. Nine division titles in 54 years is not a bad percentage when you think about how many Pirates, Royals, Cubs, and Dodgers* fans there are. Those fans would kill to have the division-winning success the Giants have had, especially in the last couple decades.

* I had to take at least one shot at the Dodgers.

Hell, I bet many Giants fans think nine division titles is a huge amount, especially if they became fans before this century. I truly became a fan in 2001. Bonds' chase for one of the most sacred records* in sports grabbed me like I was a skinny-dipper in Cap Cod. I was in attendance for his 71st and 72nd home runs, and there was no going back after that. I might not even be a sports fan if not for Bonds and the Giants' success from 2001-2004.

* Forever asterisked

I've been alive for almost half of the Giants division titles, so my perspective on the Giants' success is a little skewed. Right now, I'm very happy the Giants didn't follow the 2011 script but this season won't be completely satisfying unless it ends with a parade. For much older fans than me, winning this division has to be more meaningful. I've seen how hard it is to win a division, but I've got nothing on the guys and gals who grew up rooting for Mays, McCovey, Perry, Clark, and all the other pre-2000 legends. To enjoy this crown as much as I should, I have to think about the torture these older fans have gone through.

And man, this was a really awesome season. Even more awesome than the 2010 regular season because this team didn't feel the need to give their fans as many heart attacks.

Let's recap. Wilson's gone, season over. Casilla's actually not much worse than Wilson. Nevermind, everyone's closing! Melky's the savior? Melky's the savior! Melky's a traitor. Posey's back! Posey's really back!! WTF Lincecum?? Perfect Cain. Vogelsong is gonna win the Cy Youn... oh, wait. Pence is the bat we needed! Wait, Scutaro is the bat we needed? Pagan sucks. Pay that man! Crawford is worthless. You know who should win the NL Gold Glove at shortstop? Just play Belt everyday dammit! Dodgers need to share their pixie dust. Dodgers need to share their money. LOL Dodgers. So the offense is going to carry the Giants to the playoffs now?

What a season.

Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't expect anything less than a World Championship. Same goes for Nats and Orioles fans. A World title is the only goal a fan should have no matter how much success their team has had in their history.

But we can worry about that next week. Let's celebrate the division title right now and enjoy watching Emmanuel Burriss attempt to get that seemingly unattainable extra-base hit.


Sunday, September 16, 2012

New Bleacher Report article

I just finished writing an article on Bleacher Report, saying who I think should win the AL and NL MVPs and who the runner-ups should be.

Buster Posey is obviously on this list, or else I wouldn't be posting this here. I'm not that much of a shameless plugger of my work.

That being said, I'm not going to spoil anything, so click on the damn URL! That's an order!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1335667-top-5-nl-and-al-mvp-candidates-for-2012



Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Well that was exciting!

So many things happened in this game, I'm gonna have to use a bullet-point format so that my thoughts don't get all jumbled in incoherent paragraphs.

Let's go in chronological order:
  • Posey and Pence got AT&T'd hard in that first inning. Thankfully, their homers-in-any-other-ballpark still flew over Justin Upton's head and still resulted in four runs. No way the Giants would blow that 4-0 lead...
  • Zito looked really good for four innings, then not so much. I'm done analyzing him. He's a fifth starter. He'll have good outings, he'll have bad outings, and he'll have outings like today where he's good and bad. Cash your chips and be happy you left the casino with a sub-5 ERA from Zeets.
  • Guillermo Mota pitched exactly 2 innings since coming back from his 100-game (repeat: 100-game suspension) before he came into today's game. Add the fact that there are now extra bullpen arms because the roster expanded to 40 players and there is absolutely no reason Bochy should have put Mota in this game. A two-run lead in the 6th inning is a high-leverage situation, so why on Earth would you put a guy in who has barely pitched in four months with Goldschmidt and Montero due up? And don't use the excuse that other relievers were tired. Anybody would have been better than Mota in that situation, besides maybe Brad Penny. Bochy has made plenty of smart decisions -- like using a closer-by-committee -- but then completely misuses his bullpen in games like this. I don't get it.
  • Kontos, Penny, and Loux were equally as bad as Mota. Kontos gave up two RBI singles after replacing Mota, while Penny and Loux somehow only gave up one run (a good example of how incomplete ERA is as a stat). The 6th though 8th innings involved some of the worst relief pitching I've seen from the Giants in years.
  • The Giants always have a "Singalong Inning" in the middle of the 8th, usually with Journey's "Lights" playing if they're winning or "Don't Stop Believin'" if they're losing. The crowd sings along (hence the inning's name), which usually feels cheesy and forced, unless it's a World Series game. Well, as I explained in my last post, the Giants have been pretty hard to watch the last few games I've attended, and hearing "Don't Stop Believin'" every time I went to AT&T was starting to really get on my nerves. I was this close to leaving in the 7th inning just to avoid hearing that stupid song one more time.
  • Good thing I sucked it up and stayed. It felt pretty hopeless down 8-5 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 8th, but some the bottom of the order provided some unexpected magic. Hector Sanchez and Brandon Crawford hit back-to-back doubles, making it 8-6. Brandon Belt then hit an RBI single. Angel Pagan struck out, but getting the score to 8-7 definitely re-energized the crowd ("Don't Stop Believin'" certainly didn't, at least not in my mind).
  • Oh, I forgot to mention it was Star Wars day at the Park. Tons of people were in Star Wars costumes, everything on the jumbotron was Star Wars themed, it was silly and fun. When the Giants came up to bat, the pictures of the batters' faces shown on the jumbotron had Jedi hoods over their heads. Guess which Giant looked the goofiest. Here's a hint.
  • Jean Machi, welcome to the big club.
  • Top 9, Marco Scutaro hit a lead-off double (foreshadowing...). After Pablo grounded out, Mr. Unclutch Posey stepped up to the plate. As he so often does, Posey battled and worked the count to 2-2 before scorching a game-tying double past the third-baseman. Great piece of hitting. Can we now shoot down this "Posey isn't clutch" narrative before it has a chance to become an actual thing?
  • Sergio Romo: One of the best relievers in baseball.
  • Look, I'm glad Brett Pill's bunt ended up working out but people need to stop gushing over it. Aubrey Huff was lauded for his bunt in Game 5 of the World Series that was subsequently followed that inning by Edgar Renteria's huge home run, and I'm not denying that Pill or Huff were unselfish. But bunts are bad plays unless you're an awful hitter or a pitcher. Pill isn't a very good hitter but he's not awful and he's got power, yet he eliminated any chance of a hit in order to move the runner over. For every bunt that results in a run, there are several that result in nothing. I love that Pill's bunt resulted in a run, but I don't like that people actually think sacrifice bunting from powerful position players is a good play.
  • Scutaro delivers again! This guy has been so money since he became a Giant. Pence's struggles have been totally neutralized by Scutaro. As bad as I feel for Freddy Sanchez, Scutaro is making his absence pretty easy to handle.