You might be wondering A) what the shark reference is about, and B) why I chose to put Gregor Blanco (hint: he's who the shark reference is about) as practically an equal contributor with Madison Bumgarner when "MadBum" had a one-hit shutout. I can explain.
For those who don't know, Blanco's nickname is "white shark." ("Blanco" is Spanish for "white", by the way. You learn something new everyday!). While I was watching tonight's game against the Reds, the great Giants broadcasters Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper were talking about a conversation they overheard between Blanco and Pablo Sandoval before the game. Sandoval was telling Blanco that he should put his hand on the top of his head in the shape of a shark fin whenever he got a hit.
Blanco hit a triple in the bottom of the 7th inning, and as you can see at 0:24 in the clip, he flashes the fin. He and Sandoval do more fin-tastic stunts after Blanco scores and comes back into the dugout. Pablo must be so boring to play with...
Anyway, to make a short story long, I thought this shark fin stuff was fun. Also, my favorite animal has always been the shark, so Blanco and Sandoval's shenanigans struck a special cord with me.
All this being said, I didn't let the shark fun distract me from the shellacking Bumgarner put on the Reds' lineup. One hit, 2 walks, 8 Ks, and an impressive first-to-home sprint on Blanco's triple made this what has to be Bumgarner's best game as a professional, other than Game 4 of the 2010 World Series. The craziest part: he's only 22!
This game was also the 4th straight shutout for the Giants, as well as 36 straight shutout innings, which are both SF Giants records. This is a hot pitching staff right now, and the lineup is providing more than enough runs, which I'm sure makes the pitchers ever more confident.
As long as the injury bug doesn't bite the Giants too hard for the rest of the season, there's no reason this team shouldn't win the division. I worry about Arizona (the Dodgers need more than Matt Kemp being healthy to pose a real threat in this division), but the Giants have a much better lineup than last year's even when Buster Posey was healthy. I'm by no means declaring the Giants NL West winners this early in the season, but making the playoffs is definitely a realistic expectation.
Excuse me while I go knock on some wood.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Monday, June 25, 2012
Misusing Casilla
I don't want to blame Bruce Bochy, Brian Sabean, or other members of Giants' management for the walk-off home run Santiago Casilla gave up against the A's yesterday, but it gets hard to watch Casilla be continually saved (pun semi-intended) for save situations. You might ask, "Shouldn't the closer always and only be used in save situations?"
No, he shouldn't, and I've got plenty of reasons why.
First off, let me just say that the save statistic is one of the most annoying, meaningless stats in baseball. If you're not sure why this is, click on the previous link and read the part where Wes Littleton "earned" a save in a 30-3 game. Looking at the box score, you might understandably be wondering how Littleton earned a save when he entered the game with a 14-3 lead. According to the save rules, if you pitch effectively for at least three innings with a lead, you get a save. I think it's pretty clear why this stat is so dumb.
So why do managers act like save situations are so damn important?
Well, sometimes these situations actually are vital, like if it's the bottom of the ninth inning with bases loaded and one out in a one-run game. You want your best reliever in that situation, and the closer is (or, at least, should be) your best reliever.
But most save situations aren't as dire as the previous scenario. For instance, yesterday was the first time since May 8th (14 saves ago) that Casilla entered a game in a save situation with only a one-run lead to protect. Casilla's two blown saves? Both when he entered the game with a one-run lead. Now, to be fair, Casilla hasn't had too many "Hoffmans" (saves when giving up at least one run), so he's been a shut-down guy in save situations with 2-3 run leads, but it's easy to see how the save stat can make an average reliever look elite.
So why else do managers value save situations so much? Well, because they're misguided.
If the scenario were bottom of the ninth inning, bases loaded, one out, but a tie game, many managers would be reluctant to use their closer there. Unless the manager is simply resting his closer for that game, there's zero reason why he shouldn't use his closer in that situation. If you're trying to win the game, you need to get two outs without giving up a run, so you want your best reliever (your closer) in this spot. If you don't think your closer is the best guy in the bullpen to do the job, he shouldn't be the closer.
This saving the closer for save situations is the main problem I have with how Bochy has been using Casilla this season.
Casilla pitched in all three games against the A's this weekend. In the first game, he pitched the ninth inning with a 5-3 lead when he entered. No issue there. It had been two games since he'd pitched, so he had plenty of rest and there hadn't been any situation earlier in the game where he would've been more helpful. However, he was misused in the second game. The Giants had a four-run lead with two outs and runners on first and second base when Casilla came in. A "save situation". It's as if a siren went off in Bochy's brain that was screeching "SAVE SITUATION!!" before he replaced Shane Loux with Casilla. Bochy should have brought in Clay Hensley or Javier Lopez, both whom had pitched less than Casilla the night before. If one or both of those two pitchers gave up some runs, and the situation became tense, then Casilla would be a good choice to bring in but why waste your closer in a four-run game just because he had a chance to record a save?
If Bochy would just use Casilla (and Sergio Romo, who many think is the best reliever on the Giants) in the tightest spots and ignore the save stat, he would almost certainly see results in the win column. Instead, he risks overusing his closer because the Giants play so many close games where they have small leads in the ninth inning. Maybe Brian Wilson wouldn't be out for the year if Bochy used this method in the previous seasons (only speculating because no one knows if Wilson's arm would've broken down regardless of how he was used).
Get rid of the save!
No, he shouldn't, and I've got plenty of reasons why.
First off, let me just say that the save statistic is one of the most annoying, meaningless stats in baseball. If you're not sure why this is, click on the previous link and read the part where Wes Littleton "earned" a save in a 30-3 game. Looking at the box score, you might understandably be wondering how Littleton earned a save when he entered the game with a 14-3 lead. According to the save rules, if you pitch effectively for at least three innings with a lead, you get a save. I think it's pretty clear why this stat is so dumb.
So why do managers act like save situations are so damn important?
Well, sometimes these situations actually are vital, like if it's the bottom of the ninth inning with bases loaded and one out in a one-run game. You want your best reliever in that situation, and the closer is (or, at least, should be) your best reliever.
But most save situations aren't as dire as the previous scenario. For instance, yesterday was the first time since May 8th (14 saves ago) that Casilla entered a game in a save situation with only a one-run lead to protect. Casilla's two blown saves? Both when he entered the game with a one-run lead. Now, to be fair, Casilla hasn't had too many "Hoffmans" (saves when giving up at least one run), so he's been a shut-down guy in save situations with 2-3 run leads, but it's easy to see how the save stat can make an average reliever look elite.
So why else do managers value save situations so much? Well, because they're misguided.
If the scenario were bottom of the ninth inning, bases loaded, one out, but a tie game, many managers would be reluctant to use their closer there. Unless the manager is simply resting his closer for that game, there's zero reason why he shouldn't use his closer in that situation. If you're trying to win the game, you need to get two outs without giving up a run, so you want your best reliever (your closer) in this spot. If you don't think your closer is the best guy in the bullpen to do the job, he shouldn't be the closer.
This saving the closer for save situations is the main problem I have with how Bochy has been using Casilla this season.
Casilla pitched in all three games against the A's this weekend. In the first game, he pitched the ninth inning with a 5-3 lead when he entered. No issue there. It had been two games since he'd pitched, so he had plenty of rest and there hadn't been any situation earlier in the game where he would've been more helpful. However, he was misused in the second game. The Giants had a four-run lead with two outs and runners on first and second base when Casilla came in. A "save situation". It's as if a siren went off in Bochy's brain that was screeching "SAVE SITUATION!!" before he replaced Shane Loux with Casilla. Bochy should have brought in Clay Hensley or Javier Lopez, both whom had pitched less than Casilla the night before. If one or both of those two pitchers gave up some runs, and the situation became tense, then Casilla would be a good choice to bring in but why waste your closer in a four-run game just because he had a chance to record a save?
If Bochy would just use Casilla (and Sergio Romo, who many think is the best reliever on the Giants) in the tightest spots and ignore the save stat, he would almost certainly see results in the win column. Instead, he risks overusing his closer because the Giants play so many close games where they have small leads in the ninth inning. Maybe Brian Wilson wouldn't be out for the year if Bochy used this method in the previous seasons (only speculating because no one knows if Wilson's arm would've broken down regardless of how he was used).
Get rid of the save!
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Giving Melky his due
I haven't talked about Melky Cabrera very much on this blog, but with the way he's played this month, he deserves to get a post dedicated to him (I'm sure he's stoked).
After his 3-for-4 game against the D-Backs last night, Melky is now hitting .376, with a .420 OBP and a .556 SLG (.423, .454, .658 in May). His third hit in that game was his 50th of the month of May, which broke Willie Mays' May record of 49 hits in 1958. If Melky gets two more hits in tomorrow's game, he'll have set the Giants' record for most hits in any month (albeit a record currently held by Randy Winn).
Melky couldn't have timed this rampage of a month any better. When Pablo Sandoval went down a little less than a month ago with a hand injury, many people were pessimistic about how the month of May would go for the Giants', in both the run and win columns. But thanks to Melky's historic month, along with other solid hitting performances from guys like Angel Pagan and Buster Posey, and pitching that's been pretty good, the Giants have gone 14-9 since Sandoval got hurt. If Tim Lincecum can turn things around, the Giants' upcoming months will look even brighter.
Although it's a little early to make statements about who won a trade made in the most recent offseason, it's hard to see the Royals ever ending up on the better end of their November deal that sent the Melk Man to the Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.
I don't know much about Verdugo, so I don't want to claim too much about his future. And whether or not he's a highly-touted prospect, you never know how good he'll actually be, but if Verdugo's (unlikely) future stardom is a trade-off for Melky going nuts at the plate (hopefully for more months than just this May), I think Giants' fans will take it, especially considering that pitching (both in the present and the future) isn't the something the Giants are too worried about.
Sanchez has been a mess in his six starts this season and, at the age of 29, isn't likely to fix his control problems and become the elite starter he's had the potential of becoming. I feel bad for him because his no-hitter on July 10, 2009 was one of the best Giants' moments in recent years, and, although he struggled for most of the 2010 postseason, was a big key to the Giants getting there (he had by far his best season as a starter, including a gutsy performance on the last day of the regular season that resulted in a Giants' win that cliched the division).
Melky definitely won't continue hitting at this pace, but if he can hit somewhere around the numbers he had last year, the Giants will be more than happy. It is still only May, but Giants fans have to believe -- in the next couple years when they look back -- that their team won that aforementioned trade. Hopefully, Melky will continue to hit like an All-Star and, in doing so, haunt Royals fans even more than he already has.
Poor Royals fans.
After his 3-for-4 game against the D-Backs last night, Melky is now hitting .376, with a .420 OBP and a .556 SLG (.423, .454, .658 in May). His third hit in that game was his 50th of the month of May, which broke Willie Mays' May record of 49 hits in 1958. If Melky gets two more hits in tomorrow's game, he'll have set the Giants' record for most hits in any month (albeit a record currently held by Randy Winn).
Melky couldn't have timed this rampage of a month any better. When Pablo Sandoval went down a little less than a month ago with a hand injury, many people were pessimistic about how the month of May would go for the Giants', in both the run and win columns. But thanks to Melky's historic month, along with other solid hitting performances from guys like Angel Pagan and Buster Posey, and pitching that's been pretty good, the Giants have gone 14-9 since Sandoval got hurt. If Tim Lincecum can turn things around, the Giants' upcoming months will look even brighter.
-------
Although it's a little early to make statements about who won a trade made in the most recent offseason, it's hard to see the Royals ever ending up on the better end of their November deal that sent the Melk Man to the Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.
I don't know much about Verdugo, so I don't want to claim too much about his future. And whether or not he's a highly-touted prospect, you never know how good he'll actually be, but if Verdugo's (unlikely) future stardom is a trade-off for Melky going nuts at the plate (hopefully for more months than just this May), I think Giants' fans will take it, especially considering that pitching (both in the present and the future) isn't the something the Giants are too worried about.
Sanchez has been a mess in his six starts this season and, at the age of 29, isn't likely to fix his control problems and become the elite starter he's had the potential of becoming. I feel bad for him because his no-hitter on July 10, 2009 was one of the best Giants' moments in recent years, and, although he struggled for most of the 2010 postseason, was a big key to the Giants getting there (he had by far his best season as a starter, including a gutsy performance on the last day of the regular season that resulted in a Giants' win that cliched the division).
Melky definitely won't continue hitting at this pace, but if he can hit somewhere around the numbers he had last year, the Giants will be more than happy. It is still only May, but Giants fans have to believe -- in the next couple years when they look back -- that their team won that aforementioned trade. Hopefully, Melky will continue to hit like an All-Star and, in doing so, haunt Royals fans even more than he already has.
Poor Royals fans.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Advanced stats can be such party poopers sometimes
Like most people, I enjoy being right, especially when making predictions about the future. That's why so many people like betting on sporting events. But not every correct prediction I make is one I'm proud of.
A month ago, Barry Zito had an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, yet his advanced stats raised some big concerns. When a pitcher's BABIP is below league average and his FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA, he will almost certainly regress. This was the case with Barry Zito, but up until yesterday, he hadn't really regressed (no more than 4 ER given up in any start).
Then yesterday happened.
First this happened. Then this. Then this (painful for more than just Giants fans). And, finally, this. All in two innings.
Somehow, only four of those eight runs were earned (although, Zito helped start the mess by throwing the ball away on a sacrifice bunt by the second batter of the first inning, Norichika Aoki) but that doesn't mask the fact that this start by Zito was completely dreadful, and a long time coming according to his advanced stats.
I don't know what's worse: knowing that Zito will eventually have a bad start(s), thus not being able to enjoy his hot beginning to the season as much, or enjoying his hot start and having hope that he's finally going to have a good season, only to be disappointed when he starts struggling again. I guess the right answer is that both scenarios suck.
On the bright side, Tim Lincecum's FIP (2.92) and xFIP (3.50) are outstanding, while his BABIP (.353) is much higher than league average. Since league average and Lincecum's career average BABIP are more than .05 points lower, he should start to improve fairly soon. Unless he keeps getting into home plate collisions...
A month ago, Barry Zito had an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, yet his advanced stats raised some big concerns. When a pitcher's BABIP is below league average and his FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA, he will almost certainly regress. This was the case with Barry Zito, but up until yesterday, he hadn't really regressed (no more than 4 ER given up in any start).
Then yesterday happened.
First this happened. Then this. Then this (painful for more than just Giants fans). And, finally, this. All in two innings.
Somehow, only four of those eight runs were earned (although, Zito helped start the mess by throwing the ball away on a sacrifice bunt by the second batter of the first inning, Norichika Aoki) but that doesn't mask the fact that this start by Zito was completely dreadful, and a long time coming according to his advanced stats.
I don't know what's worse: knowing that Zito will eventually have a bad start(s), thus not being able to enjoy his hot beginning to the season as much, or enjoying his hot start and having hope that he's finally going to have a good season, only to be disappointed when he starts struggling again. I guess the right answer is that both scenarios suck.
On the bright side, Tim Lincecum's FIP (2.92) and xFIP (3.50) are outstanding, while his BABIP (.353) is much higher than league average. Since league average and Lincecum's career average BABIP are more than .05 points lower, he should start to improve fairly soon. Unless he keeps getting into home plate collisions...
Friday, May 18, 2012
Interleague play starts today
Interleague play is back for it's 15th season, and 2012 will be the last season with the interleague format that's been in place since AL-NL match-ups began in 1996 (mainly because the Houston Astros are moving to the AL next season).
But that's a topic for another blog post. Today, I just want to talk about some of this weekend's matchups. I'll obviously talk about the Series by the Bay, but there are a few other series that deserve to be mentioned, as well.
Over/under on combined runs scored these three games. Twenty? Twelve? Six? Will we see three games like the April 18th Giants-Phillies game?
You get my point. These are two teams that don't score many runs (Giants are 25th, A's 27th in the MLB in Runs Scored), while being above-average in the pitching department (Giants 5th, A's 11th in MLB team ERA). So if you like seeing very few batters getting on base and runners getting stranded the few times they do get on base, this is your kind of series.
Of course, we might end up seeing a bunch of 9-8 games because that's just how baseball is sometimes. Baseball is basically Roddy Piper.
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The "Overblown by ESPN" series of the weekend. The folks in Bristol, CT love talking about the Red Sox, and the Phillies aren't too far behind as far as attention from ESPN goes, so expect to see these games lead-off "Baseball Tonight" all weekend.
As overhyped as it might end up being, this match-up is still pretty intriguing:
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
This is probably the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are 24-15 (tied with Texas for the third-best overall record in baseball) and, if you were to take a poll from baseball experts right now, are probably a top 2 or 3 candidate to represent their league in the World Series.
This might not be as glamorous as the Red Sox-Phillies series, but if you like quality all-around baseball, these two teams are probably the most likely to deliver it.
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
You know how I said the Braves-Rays matchup is the most likely interleague series to feature the best quality of baseball this weekend? Think about the complete opposite of that, and you've got Twins vs. Brewers.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
These are two teams with talented young players that currently have top-6 MLB records, and no one expected them to be near the top of the standings at any point this season . Will they continue to be this good all season? The Nats are probably a little more likely than the O's, but no one really knows. Their fanbases should just be happy this series is being looked at more like the Braves-Rays series than the Twins-Brewers series.
But that's a topic for another blog post. Today, I just want to talk about some of this weekend's matchups. I'll obviously talk about the Series by the Bay, but there are a few other series that deserve to be mentioned, as well.
Oakland A's vs. San Francisco Giants
Over/under on combined runs scored these three games. Twenty? Twelve? Six? Will we see three games like the April 18th Giants-Phillies game?
You get my point. These are two teams that don't score many runs (Giants are 25th, A's 27th in the MLB in Runs Scored), while being above-average in the pitching department (Giants 5th, A's 11th in MLB team ERA). So if you like seeing very few batters getting on base and runners getting stranded the few times they do get on base, this is your kind of series.
Of course, we might end up seeing a bunch of 9-8 games because that's just how baseball is sometimes. Baseball is basically Roddy Piper.
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The "Overblown by ESPN" series of the weekend. The folks in Bristol, CT love talking about the Red Sox, and the Phillies aren't too far behind as far as attention from ESPN goes, so expect to see these games lead-off "Baseball Tonight" all weekend.
As overhyped as it might end up being, this match-up is still pretty intriguing:
- You've got two franchises that have been near the top of baseball for the past decade or so but are currently struggling because of lack of balance (Phillies have plenty of pitching, but Giants/A's-like hitting; Sox have plenty of hitting, but not enough pitching or healthy clubhouse snacks).
- The Phillies' Jonathan Papelbon has a chance to face his former team -- who he helped win two World Series -- for the first time since he left.
- Another Boston-Philly series (Celtics vs. 76ers) is going on this weekend.
- Both teams are playoff contenders who are around .500 right now, so winning this series would help cool down the rabid fanbases that are in both Boston and Philly.
There are definitely some interesting storylines to keep an eye on, even though it seems more likely that the broadcasters and talking heads are going to focus less on the interesting stories and more on the annoying ones.
This is probably the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are 24-15 (tied with Texas for the third-best overall record in baseball) and, if you were to take a poll from baseball experts right now, are probably a top 2 or 3 candidate to represent their league in the World Series.
This might not be as glamorous as the Red Sox-Phillies series, but if you like quality all-around baseball, these two teams are probably the most likely to deliver it.
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
You know how I said the Braves-Rays matchup is the most likely interleague series to feature the best quality of baseball this weekend? Think about the complete opposite of that, and you've got Twins vs. Brewers.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
These are two teams with talented young players that currently have top-6 MLB records, and no one expected them to be near the top of the standings at any point this season . Will they continue to be this good all season? The Nats are probably a little more likely than the O's, but no one really knows. Their fanbases should just be happy this series is being looked at more like the Braves-Rays series than the Twins-Brewers series.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Seven Runs!!!
Who care's if the Giants have won 13% of their games this year in which they've given up 5 or more runs? This is only the fifth game where they've scored 7 or more runs all season.
Would a Texas Rangers' fan manically laugh at the fact that I wrote an excited blog post about my favorite team scoring 7 runs? Probably, but when your team is the Giants, you don't care whatsoever because they just scored seven flipping runs!
Also, any Rangers' fan making fun of the Giants can watch this clip. Followed by this.
Would a Texas Rangers' fan manically laugh at the fact that I wrote an excited blog post about my favorite team scoring 7 runs? Probably, but when your team is the Giants, you don't care whatsoever because they just scored seven flipping runs!
Also, any Rangers' fan making fun of the Giants can watch this clip. Followed by this.
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