Hunter Pence traded to the Giants

While I'm sure Brian Sabean reads this blog religiously, he didn't listen to my trade deadline advice from last night. Earlier today, the Giants acquired Hunter Pence from the Phillies for Nate Schierholtz, AA catcher Tommy Joseph, and Class A pitcher Seth Rosin.

Let's first talk about Pence. He's proven he can hit and hit for power (averaging almost 25 HRs per season over the last four years) while getting on base at a very good rate (.354 career wOBA). His strikeout rate is a little higher than you'd want but he's definitely no Adam Dunn. He's not a great defender but has a canon arm, and his offense makes up for his minor defensive flaws. The Giants also have control over him next year, unlike Carlos Beltran last year who became a free agent after the season, so Pence is not going to be a two-three month rental. The Giants are getting an above-average player who will be in the orange and black for at least another season (barring another trade).

We obviously don't know if Pence is going to rake or become a Shea Hillenbrand (you thought I forgot about you, didn't you, Shea?) but it is unlikely he'll hit home runs at the same rate he has his previous five and a half seasons. His two previous teams, the Phillies and Astros, have two of the best home run-hitting parks for right-handed hitters in baseball. AT&T Park is a bad place for any home run hitter not named Barry Bonds, so Pence might not provide the power we expect from him.

That being said, Pence is a significant upgrade over Gregor Blanco and Schierholtz even if his power declines. I always rooted for Schierholtz and hoped he'd become an everyday starter. He's incredibly athletic and has one of the best arms of any right fielder in the league, but he's always been way to inconsistent at the plate. At 28 years old, it doesn't look like "Nasty Nate" will ever become more than a solid bench player.

Joseph was a top-10 prospect in the Giants system and might've been a good replacement for Posey behind the plate (with Posey then hypothetically moving to first base) but he doesn't look like a franchise-changing player.

Rosin's ceiling is an average major-leaguer, at best.

Overall,  I really like this trade even though I think my Moneyball strategy would've been a wiser option. Compared to last year's Beltran trade, this is a steal. Pence's contract doesn't expire at the end of the season (unlike Beltran's did last season) and the Giants didn't give up one of their highest-rated prospects to get him (gave up Zach Wheeler for Beltran last season).

Does this mean the Giants will win the division? As they say, that's why they play the games.