While I'm sure Brian Sabean reads this blog religiously, he didn't listen to my trade deadline advice from last night. Earlier today, the Giants acquired Hunter Pence from the Phillies for Nate Schierholtz, AA catcher Tommy Joseph, and Class A pitcher Seth Rosin.
Let's first talk about Pence. He's proven he can hit and hit for power (averaging almost 25 HRs per season over the last four years) while getting on base at a very good rate (.354 career wOBA). His strikeout rate is a little higher than you'd want but he's definitely no Adam Dunn. He's not a great defender but has a canon arm, and his offense makes up for his minor defensive flaws. The Giants also have control over him next year, unlike Carlos Beltran last year who became a free agent after the season, so Pence is not going to be a two-three month rental. The Giants are getting an above-average player who will be in the orange and black for at least another season (barring another trade).
We obviously don't know if Pence is going to rake or become a Shea Hillenbrand (you thought I forgot about you, didn't you, Shea?) but it is unlikely he'll hit home runs at the same rate he has his previous five and a half seasons. His two previous teams, the Phillies and Astros, have two of the best home run-hitting parks for right-handed hitters in baseball. AT&T Park is a bad place for any home run hitter not named Barry Bonds, so Pence might not provide the power we expect from him.
That being said, Pence is a significant upgrade over Gregor Blanco and Schierholtz even if his power declines. I always rooted for Schierholtz and hoped he'd become an everyday starter. He's incredibly athletic and has one of the best arms of any right fielder in the league, but he's always been way to inconsistent at the plate. At 28 years old, it doesn't look like "Nasty Nate" will ever become more than a solid bench player.
Joseph was a top-10 prospect in the Giants system and might've been a good replacement for Posey behind the plate (with Posey then hypothetically moving to first base) but he doesn't look like a franchise-changing player.
Rosin's ceiling is an average major-leaguer, at best.
Overall, I really like this trade even though I think my Moneyball strategy would've been a wiser option. Compared to last year's Beltran trade, this is a steal. Pence's contract doesn't expire at the end of the season (unlike Beltran's did last season) and the Giants didn't give up one of their highest-rated prospects to get him (gave up Zach Wheeler for Beltran last season).
Does this mean the Giants will win the division? As they say, that's why they play the games.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Giants don't need to make a huge trade
Yes, I watched last night's game against the Mets, mostly because I hate myself and enjoy torture (cue Duane Kuiper) but I was able to find some hope while watching Moneyball in between the hair-pulling.
During the commercials and extremely gloomy moments of the game, I flipped between the Giants game and the great baseball film (and better book) Moneyball. The reason the Oakland A's were so revolutionary back when Moneyball took place (in 2003) was because they found value in players so many other teams overlooked. Instead of signing higher-profile players like Jason Giambi, they replaced him with cheaper players like Scott Hatteberg who weren't as inferior as other teams thought they were.
This narrative had me thinking about the Giants at today's trade deadline. Rumors had the Giants linked in a deal that would bring Hunter Pence to San Francisco. Now obviously Pence would be an upgrade for the Giants' lineup -- like Carlos Beltran was last year -- but I don't think he'd make as big of an impact as Giants fans would hope -- like Beltran last year. Pence would also cost the Giants top-level prospects (the Giants do not have a stacked farm system to begin with), so the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
If the Giants are going to make a trade(s), they should take a page out of Billy Beane andPeter Brand's Paul DePodesta's notebook and focus on smaller-named players who would cost less (in money and prospects) while still providing plenty of value. Players like Marco Scutaro.
Now sure, Scutaro struck out looking with the bases loaded in the ninth inning last night but I would much rather see that at-bat (0-2 count to 3-2, fighting off tough pitches) than 95% of the at-bats Brandon Crawford has. Scutaro isn't a great hitter but he's more than passable especially when you consider his count-working skills (not that important, but certainly a bonus) and a pretty good OBP history (.358 last year, .379 in 2009, .337 career). He's an upgrade over Crawford and Ryan Theriot at the plate and more reliable than Brandon Belt (I need to rant: Belt has been in an atrocious slump as of late and still has a .342 OBP. As inconsistent and frustrating as he is as a hitter, he still walks at an above-average rate, which is such a valuable trait to have in your lineup. I feel like Billy Beane and Peter Brand in a room full of scouts who all hate Belt because of his giraffe-like body. Beane: "What does Belt do, Peter?" Brand: "He gets on base.")
If the Giants can get one or two more hitters like Scutaro, I think they'll easily be able to contend for the division title the rest of the way.
As far as last night's game goes, no need to overreact. A five-game losing streak is obviously never a good thing and they looked horrible against the Dodgers, but they nearly pulled this one out. Romo's recent struggles are definitely concerning but he could just in a tiny funk. I trust him to turn it around. The Giants could definitely use another bullpen arm (is any Giants fan confident in Casilla right now?) but I'd worry about acquiring bats first. The bullpen has been solid all year and 2-3 bad games from a couple relievers should not overshadow the four previous months of quality pitching.
During the commercials and extremely gloomy moments of the game, I flipped between the Giants game and the great baseball film (and better book) Moneyball. The reason the Oakland A's were so revolutionary back when Moneyball took place (in 2003) was because they found value in players so many other teams overlooked. Instead of signing higher-profile players like Jason Giambi, they replaced him with cheaper players like Scott Hatteberg who weren't as inferior as other teams thought they were.
This narrative had me thinking about the Giants at today's trade deadline. Rumors had the Giants linked in a deal that would bring Hunter Pence to San Francisco. Now obviously Pence would be an upgrade for the Giants' lineup -- like Carlos Beltran was last year -- but I don't think he'd make as big of an impact as Giants fans would hope -- like Beltran last year. Pence would also cost the Giants top-level prospects (the Giants do not have a stacked farm system to begin with), so the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
If the Giants are going to make a trade(s), they should take a page out of Billy Beane and
Now sure, Scutaro struck out looking with the bases loaded in the ninth inning last night but I would much rather see that at-bat (0-2 count to 3-2, fighting off tough pitches) than 95% of the at-bats Brandon Crawford has. Scutaro isn't a great hitter but he's more than passable especially when you consider his count-working skills (not that important, but certainly a bonus) and a pretty good OBP history (.358 last year, .379 in 2009, .337 career). He's an upgrade over Crawford and Ryan Theriot at the plate and more reliable than Brandon Belt (I need to rant: Belt has been in an atrocious slump as of late and still has a .342 OBP. As inconsistent and frustrating as he is as a hitter, he still walks at an above-average rate, which is such a valuable trait to have in your lineup. I feel like Billy Beane and Peter Brand in a room full of scouts who all hate Belt because of his giraffe-like body. Beane: "What does Belt do, Peter?" Brand: "He gets on base.")
If the Giants can get one or two more hitters like Scutaro, I think they'll easily be able to contend for the division title the rest of the way.
As far as last night's game goes, no need to overreact. A five-game losing streak is obviously never a good thing and they looked horrible against the Dodgers, but they nearly pulled this one out. Romo's recent struggles are definitely concerning but he could just in a tiny funk. I trust him to turn it around. The Giants could definitely use another bullpen arm (is any Giants fan confident in Casilla right now?) but I'd worry about acquiring bats first. The bullpen has been solid all year and 2-3 bad games from a couple relievers should not overshadow the four previous months of quality pitching.
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Friday, July 13, 2012
Giants' first-half grades
Baseball resumes tomorrow after another exciting All-Star break. OK, maybe the combination of the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game were as exciting as Joe Buck reading a phonebook, but at least Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Matt Cain, and Buster Posey all played major roles in winning the Midsummer Classic. Now, if the Giants make it to the World Series they will have homefield advantage because of their All Stars' efforts, even if their would-be Series opponent ends up with 5, 10, 20 more wins than the Giants (that's totally fair, right?).
With the second half of the season about to begin, I want to give out my grades for three of the Giants' main areas of on-field production: offense, starting pitching, and bullpen.
These grades are determined by the team's first-half performance in one of those three specific areas, how that performance compares to the preseason expectations, and how all of that compares to the rest of the league.
The Padres and Rockies are non-factors. The Dodgers had so much going for them in the first half, even a healthy Matt Kemp for the entire the second half might not be able to overcome the regression of the rest of the team. The Diamondbacks are the most worrisome, although they just don't seem to be clicking as much as they were last year (please, please, PLEASE trade Justin Upton, Arizona).
The Giants just feel like best team in this (pretty weak) division. Anything less than a division title would be a disappointment.
With the second half of the season about to begin, I want to give out my grades for three of the Giants' main areas of on-field production: offense, starting pitching, and bullpen.
These grades are determined by the team's first-half performance in one of those three specific areas, how that performance compares to the preseason expectations, and how all of that compares to the rest of the league.
Offense: B+
- Cabrera has been one of the most valuable position players in the NL thus far. While his sky-high BABIP might point to a second-half regression (although, I don't think he'll regress as much as others think), not many hitters have been better in the first half.
- Sandoval missed over a month because of a hand injury but he's been almost as good as his 2009 and 2011 self when in the lineup. Unlike Cabrera, Pablo's rate of success this season is pretty much where people expected it to be.
- We weren't sure what we would get from Posey going into the season, but I don't think anyone would complain about his .289/.362/.458 line at this point in the season. The patience, power, and overall hitting ability we came to expect from him during his rookie season are all still there, just not as explosive as they were when he got called up. Giants fans are just glad to see Posey at and behind the plate (also playing solid defense). The numbers he's put up this season are just gravy at this point.
- Let's talk about the two Brandons -- Belt and Crawford. Belt seems to get a lot of criticism from fans and media members for his mediocre batting average and low home run total (both areas people hoped and expected Belt to produce in), and the criticisms are fair. For a first baseman who was so highly touted going into last season, the high strikeout rate and low home run total are definite signs of concern. But one thing he's really excelled at is drawing walks. In fact, he might be the most patient hitter on the team, as his 14.2 BB% and .358 OBP (.104 higher than his BA) suggest. Getting on base might be the most important thing a hitter can do, so Belt has proven to be more valuable than some people might lead you to believe. Crawford, on the other hand, is just plain awful. I don't care how good his defense is.
- Angel Pagan? Eh.
- Ryan Theriot? Double Eh.
- Gregor Blanco? Reminds me a lot of Andres Torres in 2010, which means he's been extremely valuable to the Giants. Hopefully he doesn't regress, although nothing he does will ever make us forget this incredible catch.
- Bruce Bochy, please stop giving Hector Sanchez starts at catcher. He has 2 walks in 125 plate appearances. Enough said.
- Matt Cain = workhorse. His leap from very good pitcher to elite this season shouldn't come as much of a surprise.
- Madison Bumgarner hasn't been quite as consistent as Cain, but his overall production this season is about where people expected. Look for MadBum to finish the year with an ERA right around 3.00.
- Ryan Vogelsong has carried his 2011 resurgence over into the first half of 2012. Melky is getting all of the attention this year as a surprising star but I'd say Vogelsong's continued success is even more inexplicable.
- Barry Zito has been all over the place this season. He's been dominant at times, utterly dreadful at others, and somewhere in between the rest of the time. At this point, Giants fans will settle with 4.04 ERA and be glad at least hasn't been as bad as...
- ... Tim Lincecum. Almost no one can explain what's happened to him this season. I always hear media members say his velocity is down but in every game I've watched him, he's thrown 90-94 MPH. Velocity ain't his problem. Control and command are his biggest issues (4.66 BB/9 and 1.02 HR/9 this season, by far the most he's ever had in both categories), as it seems like he constantly falls behind hitters and misses his catchers' targets. The question is why have his command and control been so atrocious this season (especially out of the stretch)? No one seems to be able to definitively answer that. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if he doesn't at least have a quality start on Saturday against the Astros, the Giants have to put him in the bullpen or send him down to the minors. He's practically been an automatic loss every time he's taken the mound this season.
- The bullpen hasn't been as good as it was the last couple years and it might not even be in the top-10 in the majors, but given the fact that Brian Wilson (Tommy John surgery) and Guillermo Mota (drug suspension) practically have and will miss all of this season, the Giants' bullpen has been better than I would have imagined.
- Sergio "Don't call me Tony" Romo has been one of the best relievers in the game. It's a joy to watch a guy who barely throws 90 MPH routinely fool hitters with only a fastball-slider combination (it helps that his slider is straight-up FILTHY).
- Santiago Casilla has done an admirable job until as of late filling in for Wilson. He shouldn't be the closer (read my previous post) but he hasn't been much worse than Wilson was last year.
- Javier Lopez hasn't been nearly as good as he was the past two seasons but he still poses matchup problems for lefty hitters.
- Jeremy Affeldt has quietly been the Giants' second-best reliever (2.90 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 3.39 xFIP), and his .323 BABIP suggests he might even improve in the second half.
- Clay Hensley? See Pagan
- Shane Loux and Steve Edlefsen? See Theriot
The Padres and Rockies are non-factors. The Dodgers had so much going for them in the first half, even a healthy Matt Kemp for the entire the second half might not be able to overcome the regression of the rest of the team. The Diamondbacks are the most worrisome, although they just don't seem to be clicking as much as they were last year (please, please, PLEASE trade Justin Upton, Arizona).
The Giants just feel like best team in this (pretty weak) division. Anything less than a division title would be a disappointment.
Friday, July 6, 2012
Closer-by-committee time for the Giants
Let me start off by saying that I think Santiago Casilla is a good reliever. He's been a key part of the Giants' bullpen (maybe the best bullpen in the majors since 2010) in the last three seaasons, and you'd have to be delusional if you said he wasn't a significant contributor on that 2010 championship team.
But going into the bottom of the ninth inning in last night's final game of the Giants' series against the Nationals, I had almost zero confidence in Casilla closing the game. Part of that was because the Giants' lead shrunk from 5-1 to 5-4 in the previous two innings, but the main reason is that Casilla just hasn't been consistent enough in high-leverage situations to instill calmness in people like me.
His career BB/9 is 4.25, well below the league average. Although his 2.9 BB/9 this season is above league average, this sample size is much smaller (and, therefore, less trustworthy) than his previous combined seasons. If you're a closer and you're walking batters at such a high rate, you set up possible rallies for the other teams at the worst possible times.
Casilla pitched in various types of situations the last two seasons (close leads, close deficits, tie games, large leads, and large deficits), but once he became the closer this season, he started coming in with close leads in the ninth inning in basically every outing. A team can skate by with a pitcher who lets a high rate of hitters get on base when it's the seventh or eighth inning because A) not every situation he's thrown into is a close lead and B) once he gets in trouble, the manager has no fear of pulling him out of the game. But if that pitcher is the closer, he is supposed to get three outs without blowing the tight lead, so his leash is extended and the damage is more likely to worsen.
None of this explains everything that's wrong with Casilla right now, and he was fine up until a few weeks ago, but his last few outings reaffirm my belief that the Giants shouldn't use one designated "closer" but a revolving door of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and possibly other relievers to finish the ninth inning.
The key thing I want out of this closer-by-committee of sorts is for Bochy to use his relievers in the best situations not only for the situation, but also for the individual reliever. If the Giants have a close lead in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning and two of the three batters due up for the opponent are left-handed, Lopez would probably be the best choice unless he has pitched a bunch in recent games (I realize Lopez is used a currently lefty specialist, but I can't remember a time this season where he pitched in the ninth in a save situation). Romo should face the heart of the opposing team's lineup (unless they're mostly lefties) every time the game is close in the late innings (just look at his numbers!) unless he's also pitched too much recently or if Casilla is a better matchup in some way.
These pitchers shouldn't be designated to specific innings but to the most high-leverage situation. Putting Romo in the game in the eighth inning in a one-run game against the 7-8-9 hitters and saving Casilla for the ninth and the top of the order doesn't make sense unless you for some reason think Casilla is the better pitcher (or if you believe the ridiculous notion that Casilla is "better-suited" for the ninth inning than Romo is). Compare the stats; Romo has proven he's better.
Casilla shouldn't be banned from pitching in save situations but he shouldn't be the designated guy for those situations, either. Neither should Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, Penny, etc. If Bochy and the Giants' front office realize how meaningless a save is and use a late inning revolving door of relievers, they'll not only be keeping those pitchers fresh, they'll keep opponents off-balance and, as a result, win more close games -- presumably, at least.
But going into the bottom of the ninth inning in last night's final game of the Giants' series against the Nationals, I had almost zero confidence in Casilla closing the game. Part of that was because the Giants' lead shrunk from 5-1 to 5-4 in the previous two innings, but the main reason is that Casilla just hasn't been consistent enough in high-leverage situations to instill calmness in people like me.
His career BB/9 is 4.25, well below the league average. Although his 2.9 BB/9 this season is above league average, this sample size is much smaller (and, therefore, less trustworthy) than his previous combined seasons. If you're a closer and you're walking batters at such a high rate, you set up possible rallies for the other teams at the worst possible times.
Casilla pitched in various types of situations the last two seasons (close leads, close deficits, tie games, large leads, and large deficits), but once he became the closer this season, he started coming in with close leads in the ninth inning in basically every outing. A team can skate by with a pitcher who lets a high rate of hitters get on base when it's the seventh or eighth inning because A) not every situation he's thrown into is a close lead and B) once he gets in trouble, the manager has no fear of pulling him out of the game. But if that pitcher is the closer, he is supposed to get three outs without blowing the tight lead, so his leash is extended and the damage is more likely to worsen.
None of this explains everything that's wrong with Casilla right now, and he was fine up until a few weeks ago, but his last few outings reaffirm my belief that the Giants shouldn't use one designated "closer" but a revolving door of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and possibly other relievers to finish the ninth inning.
The key thing I want out of this closer-by-committee of sorts is for Bochy to use his relievers in the best situations not only for the situation, but also for the individual reliever. If the Giants have a close lead in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning and two of the three batters due up for the opponent are left-handed, Lopez would probably be the best choice unless he has pitched a bunch in recent games (I realize Lopez is used a currently lefty specialist, but I can't remember a time this season where he pitched in the ninth in a save situation). Romo should face the heart of the opposing team's lineup (unless they're mostly lefties) every time the game is close in the late innings (just look at his numbers!) unless he's also pitched too much recently or if Casilla is a better matchup in some way.
These pitchers shouldn't be designated to specific innings but to the most high-leverage situation. Putting Romo in the game in the eighth inning in a one-run game against the 7-8-9 hitters and saving Casilla for the ninth and the top of the order doesn't make sense unless you for some reason think Casilla is the better pitcher (or if you believe the ridiculous notion that Casilla is "better-suited" for the ninth inning than Romo is). Compare the stats; Romo has proven he's better.
Casilla shouldn't be banned from pitching in save situations but he shouldn't be the designated guy for those situations, either. Neither should Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, Penny, etc. If Bochy and the Giants' front office realize how meaningless a save is and use a late inning revolving door of relievers, they'll not only be keeping those pitchers fresh, they'll keep opponents off-balance and, as a result, win more close games -- presumably, at least.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Giants get four All-Stars
If I told you before the season that the Giants would get four All Stars, you probably wouldn't be that surprised. If I then told you that three of those four were position players who were voted in as starters and the one All-star pitcher wasn't named Lincecum or Wilson, you might spit out your coffee in shock.
The craziest part is that all four players might have made the team even if they weren't voted in by the fans.
Melky Cabrera is currently 3rd in the NL in batting average and 10th in OPS, so it would have been a travesty if he was left off the All-Star roster.
While Buster Posey -- with his National League record-setting 7.6 million votes -- isn't having as good of a season as fellow catchers Carlos Ruiz or Yadier Molina, the lack of quality first basemen in the NL (Brian LaHair from the Cubs is the only other NL All-Star first baseman) might entice the coaches to take Posey because of his first base abilities, thus giving the NL team a more deserving player to be a backup first baseman than, say, Freddie Freeman.
Pablo Sandoval is having a decent year but missed over a month due to injury, so his All-Star candidacy is a little harder to defend. However, besides David Wright and (arguably) David Freese, it's hard find any NL third baseman who's been better than Sandoval this season (the 2012 NL is bad).
So, based on the seasons Cabrera, Posey, and Sandoval are having and the (lack of) competition they have in the NL, it isn't that crazy that these three made the All-Star team. (You know what is nuts? Brandon Crawford almost became the NL's starting shortstop. Brandon Crawford!!!). Just not many people at the beginning of the season would have predicted all three of the these guys being this good and popular.
Tell someone before the season that Matt Cain would be an All Star? About as surprising as Kim Kardashian telling you she's dating a professional athlete. While Cain's ascent into arguably being the best pitcher in the game has been a little unexpected, we always knew he had that potential. He might end up being the All-Star Game starter for the NL (although it will probably be R.A. Dickey), which would mean four of the nine NL starters would be Giants. Not since 2002 have the Giants even come close to that many starters.
Credit has to go to the Giants fans, many of whom used all 25 votes on multiple email addresses, for the three Giants position players becoming All-Star starters. For Posey to set the record for NL votes, Sandoval to pass Wright (who plays in the colossal market of New York), and Cabrera to lead all NL outfielders in votes took a huge effort from Giants fans. It's not like Posey, Sandoval, or Cabrera are huge stars, so it's obvious that the only way for those three to pass up bigger-name players like Molina, Wright, Kemp, Braun, and Beltran was from Giants fans and their gigantic voting efforts.
I'm excited to see these four Giants next week in Kansas City, and hopefully the national audience will learn more about these players who have performed so well out here in San Francisco.
The craziest part is that all four players might have made the team even if they weren't voted in by the fans.
Melky Cabrera is currently 3rd in the NL in batting average and 10th in OPS, so it would have been a travesty if he was left off the All-Star roster.
While Buster Posey -- with his National League record-setting 7.6 million votes -- isn't having as good of a season as fellow catchers Carlos Ruiz or Yadier Molina, the lack of quality first basemen in the NL (Brian LaHair from the Cubs is the only other NL All-Star first baseman) might entice the coaches to take Posey because of his first base abilities, thus giving the NL team a more deserving player to be a backup first baseman than, say, Freddie Freeman.
Pablo Sandoval is having a decent year but missed over a month due to injury, so his All-Star candidacy is a little harder to defend. However, besides David Wright and (arguably) David Freese, it's hard find any NL third baseman who's been better than Sandoval this season (the 2012 NL is bad).
So, based on the seasons Cabrera, Posey, and Sandoval are having and the (lack of) competition they have in the NL, it isn't that crazy that these three made the All-Star team. (You know what is nuts? Brandon Crawford almost became the NL's starting shortstop. Brandon Crawford!!!). Just not many people at the beginning of the season would have predicted all three of the these guys being this good and popular.
Tell someone before the season that Matt Cain would be an All Star? About as surprising as Kim Kardashian telling you she's dating a professional athlete. While Cain's ascent into arguably being the best pitcher in the game has been a little unexpected, we always knew he had that potential. He might end up being the All-Star Game starter for the NL (although it will probably be R.A. Dickey), which would mean four of the nine NL starters would be Giants. Not since 2002 have the Giants even come close to that many starters.
Credit has to go to the Giants fans, many of whom used all 25 votes on multiple email addresses, for the three Giants position players becoming All-Star starters. For Posey to set the record for NL votes, Sandoval to pass Wright (who plays in the colossal market of New York), and Cabrera to lead all NL outfielders in votes took a huge effort from Giants fans. It's not like Posey, Sandoval, or Cabrera are huge stars, so it's obvious that the only way for those three to pass up bigger-name players like Molina, Wright, Kemp, Braun, and Beltran was from Giants fans and their gigantic voting efforts.
I'm excited to see these four Giants next week in Kansas City, and hopefully the national audience will learn more about these players who have performed so well out here in San Francisco.
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