Like most people, I enjoy being right, especially when making predictions about the future. That's why so many people like betting on sporting events. But not every correct prediction I make is one I'm proud of.
A month ago, Barry Zito had an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, yet his advanced stats raised some big concerns. When a pitcher's BABIP is below league average and his FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA, he will almost certainly regress. This was the case with Barry Zito, but up until yesterday, he hadn't really regressed (no more than 4 ER given up in any start).
Then yesterday happened.
First this happened. Then this. Then this (painful for more than just Giants fans). And, finally, this. All in two innings.
Somehow, only four of those eight runs were earned (although, Zito helped start the mess by throwing the ball away on a sacrifice bunt by the second batter of the first inning, Norichika Aoki) but that doesn't mask the fact that this start by Zito was completely dreadful, and a long time coming according to his advanced stats.
I don't know what's worse: knowing that Zito will eventually have a bad start(s), thus not being able to enjoy his hot beginning to the season as much, or enjoying his hot start and having hope that he's finally going to have a good season, only to be disappointed when he starts struggling again. I guess the right answer is that both scenarios suck.
On the bright side, Tim Lincecum's FIP (2.92) and xFIP (3.50) are outstanding, while his BABIP (.353) is much higher than league average. Since league average and Lincecum's career average BABIP are more than .05 points lower, he should start to improve fairly soon. Unless he keeps getting into home plate collisions...
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