More reasons why Matt Cain's big contract extension was smart

I wish I had noticed this when I wrote about Cain's extension a month ago: his advanced stats reveal a pitcher who has consistently improved each season.

When trying to measure how good a pitcher actually is, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) are great stats to use because they only look at things pitchers have a significant amount of control over (like walks, strikeouts, and home runs).

Cain's FIP during his first four full seasons was pretty constant, never going above 3.96 but never going below 3.78. He was basically right at the league average. His FIP during his next two seasons, though, were 3.65 (in 2010) and 2.91 (in 2011). His 2.91 FIP last season was a huge improvement from his previous five seasons and was well above the league-average in that category.

However, Cain's career FIP isn't a good indicator of future improvement because his FIP numbers in his first five seasons were all about the same and didn't steadily improve. His xFIP, though, is an encouraging sign for Giants fans, and I wonder if the Giants' front office (as well as Cain's agent) looked at his career xFIP numbers when negotiating his contract extension. His xFIP improved in each of his six seasons, going from 4.59 (well below average) in 2006 to 3.78 (well above average) last season.

xFIP isn't the only stat one should use when trying to predict a pitcher's future and it is has it's fair share of flaws, but any pitcher who has steadily improved in that category for six straight seasons with a minimum of 190 innings each season (as is the case with Cain) is someone who is very likely to continue improving.

What can we expect from Cain this season? The stats point to Cain regressing a little from the hot start he's had so far because he's giving up a low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), but there are some factors to keep in mind.

First off, it's still early in the season, so it's hard to read too much into his stats since he's only started five games.

Secondly, his extremely low BABIP doesn't necessarily mean he's been lucky. His career BABIP of .262 is about .03 points lower than the league average, which is a pretty significant difference. Usually if someone's BABIP is that low, the pitcher is experiencing an unsustainable amount of luck, but since .262 is his career BABIP over six full seasons, it's hard to believe those results are solely because of luck. It's very likely that Cain has just been very good at limiting opposing hitters from hitting his pitches squarely.

In two straight starts against the Pirates and the Phillies, he pitched a combined 18 innings, with 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, and 15 Ks. You'd have to be unspeakably lucky to do that without simply pitching lights-out.

I didn't watch either start, so I don't know for sure if he was getting very lucky, consistently causing the opposing lineup to hit soft balls in play, or a combination of both. He did pitch against two dreadful offenses, so you could attribute the low BABIP in those games both to Cain making good pitches that resulted in softly hit outs and to the Pirates' and Phillies' hitters not being good enough to hit his pitches sharply.

Cain's BABIP will almost certainly rise as the season goes on, but as long as it doesn't go too much above his career average and his FIP and xFIP stay above-average (currently 3.54 and 3.67, respectively), he should have a great year.

Give Belt a Chance!

Peace also deserves a chance, but I'll talk more about that once I start a hippie blog.

Today, I want to talk about Brandon Belt, specifically his game-winning two-run double in the seventh inning of Saturday's game against the Padres.* Can he just stay in the starting lineup until at least the end of May before any big decision (benching him, sending him to Triple-A, or keeping him in the starting lineup) is made on him? I don't think that's asking too much.

Look, I'm not going to say this double means he will start hitting like Matt Kemp, but isn't one clutch hit by a guy multiple people said would be the Rookie of the Year last season enough to keep him in the starting lineup for a reasonable amount of time?

Look at his individual game stats from last year. He's hit fairly well when in the starting lineup, but Bochy (or Sabean, or whoever makes the decisions on Belt) refuses to keep him there. If he doesn't perform as the starter, then send him to the minors or trade him (the wiser of the two options, in my opinion), but there's no point of keeping him on the team if he's only going to occasionally start.

I'd understand putting Belt on the bench if the other first basemen on the squad were hitting well, but they aren't. Aubrey Huff's been struggling mightily on the field, although nobody should be worried about baseball with him at the moment because he's on the DL with very serious anxiety issues. Brett Pill's been solid (.839 OPS), but he's only had 22 ABs and is barely hitting any better than Belt.

There's hardly any risk involved with starting Belt. If he doesn't hit well, the lineup won't be that much worse off because Huff and Pill probably wouldn't hit any better. If he does hit well, though, the below-average Giants lineup would get a much-needed boost, and Belt might gain enough confidence to be a solid threat for the rest of this season and beyond. Am I missing something?


*Yes, it's 1:30AM as I'm writing this and yes, I'm a college student, but I haven't been doing what you might think I have. I had work until 11:30PM (gotta pay the bills) and the Giants game didn't end until after I started my shift, so I couldn't start this post until I got home around 12:30AM. I should be applauded for writing this so late. Will I be doing the same thing next Saturday night (May 5th)? We'll see.

Angel Pagan gives Giants a winning road trip

No matter how early in the season it is, wins like today's against the Reds are big. Avoiding a sweep and finishing above .500 on this seven-game road trip feels a lot more meaningful than it might appear. Angel Pagan's big home run made the flight back to San Fransisco much easier for the Giants' players, I'm sure

Other notes from the road trip:

•  Pagan hasn't had a good start (.230 BA, .269 OBP, .432 SLG, only 2 SBs), so it's encouraging to see him get a clutch hit. Hopefully the home run will get his bat going.
• Ryan Vogelsong's start today (6 IP, 4 ER, 7 hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks) was the worst line any Giants' starter had the whole road trip. Pretty impressive even with the caliber of starters the Giants have.
• Tim Lincecum finally made a quality start (5 IP, 1 ER, 4 hits, 5 BBs, 8 Ks)! The five walks are a little much, but Giants fans will take it as long as he limits runs.
• Aubrey Huff's anxiety disorder that put him on the 15-day DL is not something you see everyday, nor is it something to take lightly. I can only imagine how hard an anxiety disorder must be to deal with, and I hope he recovers very soon. Huff might not be the best second baseman in the league, and he's struggling at the plate this year so far (.182 BA, .300 OBP, .333 SLG), but baseball takes a back seat when a player is going through something like anxiety disorder. Get well soon Huff Daddy.
• Brandon Belt needs to take advantage of the opportunity he'll be getting with Huff on the DL. If he doesn't hit at least somewhat well these next few weeks, you know Bruce Bochy will give more ABs to Brett Pill and Huff when he comes off the DL. I think Bochy should just give Belt an extended period of time where he's the starter at first base anyway, to see if he can become a solid everyday player, but knowing how Bochy and the Giants' front office have handled Belt so far, it's now or never for the Baby Giraffe.
• Pablo Sandoval extended his hitting streak to 19 games today, passing John Rucker for the Giants' record for the longest hitting streak to start a season. Any 19-game hitting streak is a good one, so starting the season with such a streak isn't really any better than a 19-game hit streak in the middle of the season, but Pablo definitely deserves some kudos for getting off to a hot start. 
• Barry Zito continued his surprisingly hot start during the road trip, and now has a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Who cares if he has an average FIP, a well below-average xFIP, and a BABIP that screams REGRESSION? Let Giants fans enjoy a Barry Zito who doesn't actually suck while they still can. Stats are for geeks, anyway.

How big of a deal are Tim Lincecum's recent struggles?

From sfgate.com

I just wrote an article for bleacherreport.com under the same title as this blog post. Instead of just providing the link, I pasted it here (aren't I nice?). I sure hope you like it:


I read a good article from Grantland.com's Jonah Keri the other day. Keri discussed the 17-8 shellacking the Rockies put on the Giants on April 11, but mainly focused on Tim Lincecum -- the starter that day -- who get shelled for six earned runs in less than 3 innings.

(I realize that game was a week ago, so sorry if this post seems a little dated, but the main issue of Lincecum's struggles are just as relevant now as they were last week.)

Keri references five articles written over the past two seasons that basically all ask the same question: "What's wrong with Tim?" As we now know, there wasn't really anything permanently wrong with Lincecum, he just went through some slumps.

Many Giants fans remember his horrendous month of August in 2010 (7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). You couldn't find a Giants' fan who was 100% confident Lincecum would improve, not only for the rest of that season, but for his career. Well, he improved (1.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in September; 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in the postseason). Oh, and the Giants won the World Series that year.

People note that Lincecum's fastball is only topping out around 91-92 MPH, but, as Keri notes, "he hasn't [thrown much faster] for a few years now, and he's still put up strong results."

All that being said, I'm not going to sit here and say that Lincecum will be fine because there's no way of knowing that. Three starts is a very small sample size but maybe his struggles will continue. If they do, though, a struggling Lincecum might actually be a blessing in disguise for the Giants.

Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner both recently received expensive extensions, and if Lincecum pitches like he has since 2008, the Giants would almost certainly have to give more money to him than either Cain or Bumgarner. With that much money invested in three pitchers, it would be hard for the Giants to re-sign other important players (like Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval) or go after free agents. If Lincecum shows signs of slowing down, the Giants can try to trade him and get some value back or just let him test free agency when his contract expires after the 2013 season. Because Lincecum has one more year on his deal after this one, the Giants can be patient and see what happens with Timmy before they have to make any big decisions.

While the Giants' front office might have time to make a decision on Lincecum, that doesn't mean their decision will be easy. If Lincecum continues to struggle, he hurts the Giants' chances of winning in the near future, even though his departure from the Giants might give them more money to improve the team in other areas, which would help them in the somewhat distant future. However, if he pitches great these next two seasons, he helps the Giants' chances of winning now, but then the Giants would either have to give him a huge contract or let him (one of the best pitchers in the game) join another team. I'm stressed just writing about these scenarios. I can't imagine how tough it is for the Giants' front office.

Again, Lincecum is three starts into this season, so let's see how this season plays out before we all try to figure out what's best for the Giants and Lincecum. There are far more important things to worry about, like if beer and fried chicken were to blame for the collapse of Brian Wilson's elbow...


Side note: As I was writing this, he Giants just beat the Phillies 1-0 in 11 innings (in 2 hours and 27 minutes!). Cliff Lee pitched 10 innings with 0 ER, 0 BBs, 7 hits, and 7 Ks. That's pretty good, I guess. Matt Cain? 9 IP, also 0 ER, 2 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks. Psh, that's that's not even his best start this year. Man, I wish I could've watched this game! You don't see great pitchers' duels like this very often.

Eight games into the season, the Giants already get a nasty bite from the injury bug

From abcnews.go.com

From the Associated Press:

"Giants closer Brian Wilson is likely headed for surgery on his right elbow after an MRI revealed structural damage and an issue with the ligament, and his season could be in jeopardy."

From what I've read, it doesn't look very likely that Wilson will be back this season, which is a tough pill for Giants fans to swallow. Wilson has been one of the best closers in the league over the past three years, so he'll be more than missed, but I don't think Giants fans should be too pessimistic about the Giants' playoff chances this season now that Wilson's most likely done.

First of all, Wilson might not even be the best reliever in the Giants' bullpen. Sergio Romo has been nothing short of magnificent the last two years as the Giants' main setup man, and it's doubtful that the Giants would miss a beat in the ninth inning if he were to become the closer.

Santiago Casilla is also capable, as well as Javier Lopez, although Lopez is much better as a Left-handed One Out GuY (aka LOOGY). The Giants could even go closer-by-commitee and still be very likely to hold close leads in the ninth inning.

The closer position is a bit overrated because getting three outs in the ninth inning with a lead of 3 runs or less is not that much more difficult than getting three outs in the seventh or eighth, unless the top of the batting order was leading off the ninth inning in every save situation, and we know that's not always the case. Romo, Casilla, or whoever becomes the closer for the Giants is unlikely to suddenly become awful simply because he's pitching a different inning than he usually does. I'm sure there are some adjustments the new closer will have to make but I don't believe anyone who says going from middle relief/setup to closer is such a hard transition to make (just look how hard it was for a team like the Padres to replace their All-Star closer).

All that being said, the Giants are still losing an excellent reliever (closer or not) in Brian Wilson. The beard alone will be missed and whoever the Giants bring in to the bullpen to fill his spot (whether it's a player on the DL, a free agent, a player acquired via trade, or a minor leaguer) will have some enormous orange shoes to fill. Get well soon B-Willie.

Matthew Thomas Cain

This is how Cain looked in the eyes of the Pirates' hitters. 
From imgur.com

Remember those idiots who criticized Cain for blowing that six-run lead against Arizona last week? The only thing those critics can find wrong with his start in the Giants' home opener today against the Pirates is that the only hit he gave up was to the pitcher James McDonald (how dare he!).

I'm probably going to reiterate this until June: it is too early to make any judgments about this season. Tim Lincecum might have an awful year, but everyone asking "What is wrong with Tim?!?!?!" needs to settle down, just like those saying "Barry Zito is finally going to justify his horrible contract!!!" need to relax (don't worry, Zito will never justify his contract).

Same goes for Cain. A one-hit, no walk, 11-K shutout is an amazing start (even against the Pirates), but we have no idea how his season will end up at the moment, so let's not overreact. I am a big Cain fan, if you didn't know already, so I felt obligated to give him a shout out, but don't take this or the Barry Zito post as anything more than giving a couple pitchers credit for their great starts.

I still can't believe Cain's one hit was to James freaking McDonald, though. This close to perfection Matt!

Barry Zito the Stopper!

I put a picture of Zito from the his days with the A's because that was the team he was with the last time he threw a complete game shutout, back in 2003. His 274 consecutive starts between shutouts is the 3rd largest such streak in MLB history. That fact should be more remarkable, but given the way he's pitched in the years since joining the Giants, I doubt many people expected him to ever throw another shutout.

And this wasn't a mediocre shutout, either (Is there really such a thing as a mediocre shutout?): four hits allowed (only one extra-base hit), four strikeouts, a solid 71 strikes to 43 balls, a base hit in the 7th inning (the Giants are hitting!!), and zero walks, which I think is the most impressive stat of all.

One of, if not the biggest reason for Zito's struggles over the course of his Giants' career has been his extremely high walk rate: he has an average of 4.1 BB/9 since joining the Giants. To put that stat into perspective, Cliff Lee -- a low-walk pitcher -- has a career average of 2.1 BB/9. Quite the discrepancy. I didn't get to see the game, but judging from the highlights and the zero walks, Zito seemed to have great control of every pitch in his arsenal.

One start obviously doesn't mean Zito will continue to pitch like he did today, but Giants fans have to be encouraged by what they saw from him. At this point, Giants fans just want Zito to keep his team in the game. Shutouts like this are just gravy.