New Bleacher Report article

I just finished writing an article on Bleacher Report, saying who I think should win the AL and NL MVPs and who the runner-ups should be.

Buster Posey is obviously on this list, or else I wouldn't be posting this here. I'm not that much of a shameless plugger of my work.

That being said, I'm not going to spoil anything, so click on the damn URL! That's an order!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1335667-top-5-nl-and-al-mvp-candidates-for-2012

Well that was exciting!

So many things happened in this game, I'm gonna have to use a bullet-point format so that my thoughts don't get all jumbled in incoherent paragraphs.

Let's go in chronological order:

• Posey and Pence got AT&T'd hard in that first inning. Thankfully, their homers-in-any-other-ballpark still flew over Justin Upton's head and still resulted in four runs. No way the Giants would blow that 4-0 lead...
• Zito looked really good for four innings, then not so much. I'm done analyzing him. He's a fifth starter. He'll have good outings, he'll have bad outings, and he'll have outings like today where he's good and bad. Cash your chips and be happy you left the casino with a sub-5 ERA from Zeets.
• Guillermo Mota pitched exactly 2 innings since coming back from his 100-game (repeat: 100-game suspension) before he came into today's game. Add the fact that there are now extra bullpen arms because the roster expanded to 40 players and there is absolutely no reason Bochy should have put Mota in this game. A two-run lead in the 6th inning is a high-leverage situation, so why on Earth would you put a guy in who has barely pitched in four months with Goldschmidt and Montero due up? And don't use the excuse that other relievers were tired. Anybody would have been better than Mota in that situation, besides maybe Brad Penny. Bochy has made plenty of smart decisions -- like using a closer-by-committee -- but then completely misuses his bullpen in games like this. I don't get it.
• Kontos, Penny, and Loux were equally as bad as Mota. Kontos gave up two RBI singles after replacing Mota, while Penny and Loux somehow only gave up one run (a good example of how incomplete ERA is as a stat). The 6th though 8th innings involved some of the worst relief pitching I've seen from the Giants in years.
• The Giants always have a "Singalong Inning" in the middle of the 8th, usually with Journey's "Lights" playing if they're winning or "Don't Stop Believin'" if they're losing. The crowd sings along (hence the inning's name), which usually feels cheesy and forced, unless it's a World Series game. Well, as I explained in my last post, the Giants have been pretty hard to watch the last few games I've attended, and hearing "Don't Stop Believin'" every time I went to AT&T was starting to really get on my nerves. I was this close to leaving in the 7th inning just to avoid hearing that stupid song one more time.
• Good thing I sucked it up and stayed. It felt pretty hopeless down 8-5 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 8th, but some the bottom of the order provided some unexpected magic. Hector Sanchez and Brandon Crawford hit back-to-back doubles, making it 8-6. Brandon Belt then hit an RBI single. Angel Pagan struck out, but getting the score to 8-7 definitely re-energized the crowd ("Don't Stop Believin'" certainly didn't, at least not in my mind).
• Oh, I forgot to mention it was Star Wars day at the Park. Tons of people were in Star Wars costumes, everything on the jumbotron was Star Wars themed, it was silly and fun. When the Giants came up to bat, the pictures of the batters' faces shown on the jumbotron had Jedi hoods over their heads. Guess which Giant looked the goofiest. Here's a hint.
• Jean Machi, welcome to the big club.
• Top 9, Marco Scutaro hit a lead-off double (foreshadowing...). After Pablo grounded out, Mr. Unclutch Posey stepped up to the plate. As he so often does, Posey battled and worked the count to 2-2 before scorching a game-tying double past the third-baseman. Great piece of hitting. Can we now shoot down this "Posey isn't clutch" narrative before it has a chance to become an actual thing?
• Sergio Romo: One of the best relievers in baseball.
• Look, I'm glad Brett Pill's bunt ended up working out but people need to stop gushing over it. Aubrey Huff was lauded for his bunt in Game 5 of the World Series that was subsequently followed that inning by Edgar Renteria's huge home run, and I'm not denying that Pill or Huff were unselfish. But bunts are bad plays unless you're an awful hitter or a pitcher. Pill isn't a very good hitter but he's not awful and he's got power, yet he eliminated any chance of a hit in order to move the runner over. For every bunt that results in a run, there are several that result in nothing. I love that Pill's bunt resulted in a run, but I don't like that people actually think sacrifice bunting from powerful position players is a good play.
• Scutaro delivers again! This guy has been so money since he became a Giant. Pence's struggles have been totally neutralized by Scutaro. As bad as I feel for Freddy Sanchez, Scutaro is making his absence pretty easy to handle.

"When life gives you lemons, just trade them to the Red Sox for some expensive hard lemondade" - Dodgers

As you can imagine, I'm pretty pissed, and Jeremy Affeldt's recent struggles are surely not the only reasons.

First, I'll tackle the trade that sent yet another superstar (or superstars, depending on how you view Carl Crawford) to a Los Angeles team.We basically knew this trade was going to happen last night but it didn't become official until today. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash were traded to the Dodgers for James Loney and his overwhelming mediocrity. OK, the Red Sox got a few other players besides Loney, but for me, the previous sentence is the only way I view this trade. I'm not going to get into the ungodly amount of money the Dodgers are taking in, the long-term ramifications, Carl Crawford's injury, or the prospects the Red Sox got in this trade. I'm only focused on two players -- Gonzalez and Beckett -- because those are the only two who are going to make a difference in this NL West race coming down the stretch.

Gonzalez, as we know, is good at baseball things. He didn't hit as many home runs in Fenway as people expected (I mean, he averaged more HRs in his previous five seasons playing at Petco Park), but his average and OBP since he started in Boston have been better -- or at least as good -- than they ever were. If he lights it up these next 36 games, his impact could *gulp* push the Dodgers past the Giants*.

*Of course Gonzalez hit a three-run homer in his first at-bat as a Dodger. OF COURSE HE DID.

Beckett has definitely not been good so far this season, but going from pitching at Fenway Park against AL East lineups to pitching at Dodger Stadium against NL West lineups is a much better situation. But Beckett had a good 2011 season in the same ballpark and division, so it's very possible that he's just not that good anymore. Maybe he's just having an off year, because of the turmoil in Boston, mechanical issues, or a lack of fried chicken in his diet. It's hard to tell with him, which scares me. He might continue to suck or he might provide a significant amount of value. I'm totally prepared for him to have a negative ERA in a Dodgers uniform. I don't even care if the stat geeks and their "mathematical proof" say a negative ERA is impossible.

Crawford won't have any impact in 2012 because he's out for the year and Nick Punto is, well, Nick Punto.

Oh yeah, there was a game today. And I was in attendance*. I was happier forgetting these facts.

*By the way, the previous three games at AT&T Park I attended before today: the 10-0 loss to the Dodgers on 7/28, the 14-2 loss to the Nationals on 8/13, and the 6-4 loss to the Nats on 8/15 (aka the Melky Aftermath game). I'm not superstitious enough to think that my recent luck at Giants games is anything more than bad timing, but seriously, what the hell?

Let's see. The aforementioned Affeldt and the rest of the bullpen grabbed the Giants' hopes of winning and shoved them down a dirty toilet. Madison Bumgarner (who I recently gushed about like he was Marisa Miller pitching out there) gave up a walk and a double to the pitcher Mike Minor (who had a Bondsian .024, .047, .024 batting line going into today) and a three-run homer to Jason Heyward after just walking Minor and Martin Prado. The Giants' lineup basically got shut down by Minor (who had a Madduxian 4.74 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 4.47 xFIP going into today).

Baseball season is most certainly in the dog days of summer. Or maybe that's just the case for the Giants. Not sure.

Such a sweep feeling

If you had told me before this Dodgers series that the Giants would win one of three, I'd honestly have been OK with that. Not because I think the Dodgers are such a great team, but because of the whole "Melky/big series jitters/getting swept by the Dodgers last time" combination. I didn't expect the Giants to lose this series, per se, but my expectations were not all that bright.

Well, luckily the two Giants' horses and their donkey compadre pitched out of their minds (19 Ks, one BB combined by all three) and they got enough contributions from their lineup-by-commitee to slap the faces of nay-sayers (not to be confused with neigh-sayers) like me.

While the injuries to Sandoval and Posey (although they don't seem too serious) are leaving Giants fans a bit sober, big series from Pagan, Scutaro, and Arias certainly make the uphill battle to the playoffs after all the Melky hoopla feel more attainable. I mean, they're leading the division by 2.5 games for Pete's sake. How the hell did that happen?

By the way, Arias did a great Matt Kemp impression in this final game. What a boost this lineup will receive these next 38 games if he continues to be more than just a defensive replacement. I don't expect him to be anything more than average but as long as he isn't Justin Christian up there (sorry Justin, you're just not a very good hitter; great catch, though), a platoon split with him and Crawford at short and the occasional start at third might actually help the lineup much more than anyone ever expected.

Of course, one of my first thoughts after seeing Arias pound the ball all over the field tonight was that he'd be taking at-bats away from Belt. Please, Brandon, just hit a few home runs with RISP. That's all you need to do to harsh the critics, aka Bochy.

Now, while this series was a big one to sweep, it is only August and there are plenty of chances for the Giants to gag and/or the Dodgers and D-Backs to make a run. If Pence keeps struggling and the Giants encounter any sort of injury bug (I've been knocking on wood this whole post, don't worry), they could be fishing in October. I don't see them pulling away from the two teams chasing them, nor do I expect them to completely fall out of it. It should come down to the last couple weeks of the season.

Now excuse me while I go take my meds.

Giants ride the southpaw horse and some quality BABIPing back into first place

I'm not going to go as far as to say that it felt like the Giants dominated last night's game because A) as a 2-1 score often suggests, they didn't dominate, and B) it's not in my nature to feel overly confident about the Giants. But for a game against Clayton Kershaw that was close the whole way, the Giants seemed fairly in control the entire game. The younger, more Southern, Giant version of Kershaw certainly helped the cause.

Matt Cain's nickname is "the Horse", and for good reason, but Bumgarner at least deserves some Horse points for what he's done in his career so far. Yes, he's only 23(!) but his overall consistency, reliability, and durability in his 2-plus seasons in the majors makes him very Cain-like. Maybe I just love Matt Cain (I very much do) and feel like comparing every good pitcher to him, but I think Bumgarner warrants at least some Horse recognition. He could probably use a couple more years in the big leagues.

Bumgarner was amazing last night, only giving up 4 hits and 0 walks in 8 IP while throwing 123 pitches (Horse!!). He also struck out 10, which is never a bad thing to do as a pitcher. The most ridiculous part of his start was the fact that he faced several (I think around five) hitters in 3-2 counts and never walked any of them. From my knowledge, he retired all of those hitters he faced in 3-2 counts, but just the fact that he didn't walk any of those many hitters is pretty spectacular. His strikeout of Matt Kemp with a 3-2 slider in the dirt in the 6th inning with a runner on third was the highlight of MadBum's great outing (I mean, how many pitchers have ever made Kemp look that foolish in a situation like that?). 

Kershaw pitched a hell of game, as well, but the BABIP gods were on the Giants' side last night. Besides Pagan's lead-off double in the 1st inning, none of the Giants other 5 hits were hard-hit. The top of the 6th inning went like this: infield single by Pagan; single by Scutaro (that could've easily been ruled an error on Hanley Ramirez); bloop single by Sandoval, resulting in a run on an extremely close call at the plate. The Giants most certainly had some luck in winning this game but, hey, you need that sometimes if you're trying to win baseball games and make the playoffs. 

Bochy (thinking to himself): "Man, thank God Bumgarner was so good last night because that was not an easy win. We really needed to grind to get those two runs. I shoulda started Christian in left and Theriot at first. We woulda scored plenty of runs then. That Theriot, what a professio... Ah dammit, Theriot can only play second. Ohhh, I shoulda moved Pablo to first and Scutaro to third so Theriot could play second. Gotta have righty hitters against a lefty pitcher. Silly me, getting blinded by things like OBP and talent instead of sticking to my roots. Definitely gotta use that lineup against Capuano on Wednesday. GOT TO. I wonder if Sabes is gonna call up Pill before then..."

Giants lose Melky, game

For as long as I've been a Giants fan (since 2000, give or take), there have been four main depressing games that stick out in my mind: Game 7 of the 2002 World Series (with Game 6 lingering in every Giants fan's head), the Jose Cruz Jr. Dropped Catch Game in the 2003 NLDS, the Ryan Spilborghs Game in 2009, and the Assassination of Buster Posey by the Coward Scott Cousins last season. There have been plenty of other depressing games/moments in that 12-year span but those four games are on the top shelf of depression.

Yesterday's game joined that shelf but for reasons mostly dealing with off-field events, which makes this game much more unique than the other four.

I started out the day in a great mood. For my internship with KNBR, I had an event to work at AT&T Park. The event was sponsored by Supercuts where about a dozen guys won the chance to hit in a batting competition before the game. They were separated into teams with captains Tom Tolbert and Brian Murphy (who are KNBR talk show hosts, for those who don't know). There was a point system that rewarded higher points the further the guys hit the baseball. My job was simply to shag the balls they hit. Nothing else. Oh, and I got a free Standing Room Only ticket for the game after we were done. Pretty ideal day.

As me and the other two interns I was working with left the field and went to find seats, fellow intern Zack showed me the front page of ESPN.com on his phone. And so the depression began.

It took a few minutes for everything to sink in, thoughts swirling through my head. Melky Cabrera is out for the year because of PEDs. Melky Cabrera, Major League hits leader, second-leading MLB hitter in batting average, arguably the Giants' MVP, is done. The PED part of the story was the hardest part to fathom. Posey's freak injury last year was worse than this Melky saga because it was earlier in the year and because the Giants had fewer competent hitters, but injuries are much more common ways for a season to end than failed drug tests. Posey's injury happened in a split second when he had no time to dodge the incoming collision and ACL tear. He didn't choose to get hurt, it just happened and there was was nothing he could've done to stop it without hindsight. Horrible, but unavoidable. Melky would still be playing for Giants these next 44 games if he simply made the choice to not take PEDs. Instead, we got a player who had an amazing 117 games that we can't look at with admiration anymore.

On top of all the thoughts about how the Melky was saw this whole season was illegally enhanced was the fact that one of the most valuable players in the NL this season is going to have to be replaced. I started thinking about the Giants options. Blanco is the obvious replacement. Belt's played left field before; maybe occasionally play him there, put Posey at first and then have Sanchez catch, or even put Pablo at first and move Scutaro, Arias, Crawford, and Theriot around between third, short, and second depending on the matchup. This line of thinking just made me feel worse because none of these options can replace Melky's (tainted) bat.

At this point, the game was just about to start. Awesome, Lincecum against this Nats' lineup, Strasburg against this Melky-less lineup. Thank God this ticket was free. Linceum proceeded to give up two runs in the first-inning, which was bad enough in-and-of-itself until you remember that the three Nats' hits in that inning were softly hit. Crawford's two-run single made us Giants' fans hopeful for a second, but Lincecum's pitch count continued to increase as the Nats started hitting the ball on the screws (How the hell is Danny Espinosa only hitting .255?!). Once Espinosa hit his nuclear-powered rocket of a home run, you knew the game was over. The baseball gods are cruel to teams on the day they lose one of their best hitters to a failed drug test. At least that's what I've heard.

As depressed as yesterday made me, I was able to find some silver linings:
1) Melky might've struggled down the stretch, so replacing him with someone like Blanco might not be that much of a downgrade. In fact, even if Melky continued to rake, his numbers would only be worth about one win above replacement anyway (a possibly important win, but not a drastic number).
2) It felt like the Giants were going to sign Melky to a Rowand-esque contract (5 years, $60 million) at some point before next season, so that contract might've ended up being even worse than Rowand's had Melky gone off the juice and regressed and whatnot.
3) The Giants are one game back of the Dodgers right now. If Pence starts hitting, Pablo keeps doing what he did when healthy, Posey and Belt stay hot, the pitching staff avoids starts like Monday and Wednesday, and the bullpen does alright, they can win this division.
4) Think about how many things have gone wrong for the Giants this season (Wilson's injury, Pablo's frequent DL journeys, Lincecum, the offensive production from middle of the infield). If they can overcome all that and still be near first place at this point of the season, it wouldn't be surprising if they get hot these next 44 games. I'm prepared for anything but it's not like the Dodgers are the Nationals.
5) The Giants are currently only a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot right now, although let's be honest, crazy things don't happen in baseball playoff races in August or September. If you have a Wild Card lead with a month left, there's no way any team can catch you. Sorry, Giants, you're not catching the Dodgers, Pirates, or Cardinals no matter how close you are to them right now.

Favorite moments from the Giants' most dominant win of the year

I guess I should rave about the opposing team more often. Yesterday, I talked about how good the Cardinals' lineup is and how they're a frightening team going forward. I'm not changing this stance, but it's interesting that my last couple somewhat negative posts were followed by the Giants going all Wilt Chamberlain over their opponents (Because they scored a lot. Double entendre! BOOM!) I'm sure this blog had everything to do with the blowouts. It's the only explanation.

Anyway, the Giants beat the Cardinals 15-0 tonight. According to ESPN Stats and Info, this was the largest shutout win by the Giants since a game they played decades ago when they scored less than 15 runs (paraphrasing). As you would probably guess, there were many things I enjoyed about this game. Here are those things:

• The Giants scoring 15 runs.
• The Giants giving up zero runs.
• This win was against a good team, not the Rockies.
• Ryan Vogelsong continuing to quietly be one of the best pitchers in the NL.
• Vogelsong got less run support in this start than in his last (the 16-4 win over the Rockies).
• Melky and Posey staying hot. Both now have .399 OBPs and a combined .537 SLG.
• Allen Craig wasn't in the game.
• Tyler Greene was in the game.
• The Giants doubled their run differential and dropped St. Louis' differential back down to double digits from +114 to +99.
• Marco Scutaro having himself a GAME. 7 RBIs in one game are pretty good, and his first home run in a Giants uniform was a grand slam, which he hit with only an eleven-run lead. Clutch.
• Brandon Crawford showed up, and not just on defense. 
• Hunter Pence had two hits, which drove in the 1st and 3rd runs of the game. Also, Kruk and Kuip's conversation about Pence's on-deck swing, calling it a "hold-off seven iron", was hilarious. For you non-golfers, this is what they were referencing his swing to.
• Brandon Belt also had a two-hit game. If he keeps having solid at-bats like he has the past few games, he might be able to secure the first-base job for the rest of the season ... Bochy, stop looking at Brett Pill like that. Fight the temptation! Wait, Sabean, who are you texting? Is that Lyle Overbay's agent?! NOOOOOO!
• Jose Mijares made his Giants debut, pitching the ninth. He gave up a walk and a hit but was able to get out of it without ruining the shutout. I think he'll be good for the Giants, and they literally gave up nothing for him. He's also only getting paid about $900,000 this year, so picking him up is a no risk, all reward situation.
• The Giants won 15-0.